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Topic: The New Depression (Read 41 times)

kaima
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The New Depression
« Thread Started on Dec 13, 2011, 2:49am »

Depression and Democracy
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 11, 2011

It’s time to start calling the current situation what it is: a depression. True, it’s not a full replay of the Great Depression, but that’s cold comfort. Unemployment in both America and Europe remains disastrously high. Leaders and institutions are increasingly discredited. And democratic values are under siege.
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

On that last point, I am not being alarmist. On the political as on the economic front it’s important not to fall into the “not as bad as” trap. High unemployment isn’t O.K. just because it hasn’t hit 1933 levels; ominous political trends shouldn’t be dismissed just because there’s no Hitler in sight.

Let’s talk, in particular, about what’s happening in Europe — not because all is well with America, but because the gravity of European political developments isn’t widely understood.

First of all, the crisis of the euro is killing the European dream. The shared currency, which was supposed to bind nations together, has instead created an atmosphere of bitter acrimony.

Specifically, demands for ever-harsher austerity, with no offsetting effort to foster growth, have done double damage. They have failed as economic policy, worsening unemployment without restoring confidence; a Europe-wide recession now looks likely even if the immediate threat of financial crisis is contained. And they have created immense anger, with many Europeans furious at what is perceived, fairly or unfairly (or actually a bit of both), as a heavy-handed exercise of German power.

Nobody familiar with Europe’s history can look at this resurgence of hostility without feeling a shiver. Yet there may be worse things happening.

Right-wing populists are on the rise from Austria, where the Freedom Party (whose leader used to have neo-Nazi connections) runs neck-and-neck in the polls with established parties, to Finland, where the anti-immigrant True Finns party had a strong electoral showing last April. And these are rich countries whose economies have held up fairly well. Matters look even more ominous in the poorer nations of Central and Eastern Europe.

Last month the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development documented a sharp drop in public support for democracy in the “new E.U.” countries, the nations that joined the European Union after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Not surprisingly, the loss of faith in democracy has been greatest in the countries that suffered the deepest economic slumps.

And in at least one nation, Hungary, democratic institutions are being undermined as we speak.

One of Hungary’s major parties, Jobbik, is a nightmare out of the 1930s: it’s anti-Roma (Gypsy), it’s anti-Semitic, and it even had a paramilitary arm. But the immediate threat comes from Fidesz, the governing center-right party.

Fidesz won an overwhelming Parliamentary majority last year, at least partly for economic reasons; Hungary isn’t on the euro, but it suffered severely because of large-scale borrowing in foreign currencies and also, to be frank, thanks to mismanagement and corruption on the part of the then-governing left-liberal parties. Now Fidesz, which rammed through a new Constitution last spring on a party-line vote, seems bent on establishing a permanent hold on power.

The details are complex. Kim Lane Scheppele, who is the director of Princeton’s Law and Public Affairs program — and has been following the Hungarian situation closely — tells me that Fidesz is relying on overlapping measures to suppress opposition. A proposed election law creates gerrymandered districts designed to make it almost impossible for other parties to form a government; judicial independence has been compromised, and the courts packed with party loyalists; state-run media have been converted into party organs, and there’s a crackdown on independent media; and a proposed constitutional addendum would effectively criminalize the leading leftist party.

Taken together, all this amounts to the re-establishment of authoritarian rule, under a paper-thin veneer of democracy, in the heart of Europe. And it’s a sample of what may happen much more widely if this depression continues.

It’s not clear what can be done about Hungary’s authoritarian slide. The U.S. State Department, to its credit, has been very much on the case, but this is essentially a European matter. The European Union missed the chance to head off the power grab at the start — in part because the new Constitution was rammed through while Hungary held the Union’s rotating presidency. It will be much harder to reverse the slide now. Yet Europe’s leaders had better try, or risk losing everything they stand for.

And they also need to rethink their failing economic policies. If they don’t, there will be more backsliding on democracy — and the breakup of the euro may be the least of their worries.

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nictoe
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Re: The New Depression
« Reply #1 on Dec 15, 2011, 5:51am »

Unpopular Cures for Unemployment and Economic Depression

by Bill Bonner
Daily Reckoning
December 15, 2011

So far, so good.

Things keep happening, more or less as they should.

That is, the US and European economies keep falling apart. And the fixers keep failing to put them back together again.

Just as we expected.

Trying to fix a depression it is not only expensive…. The US government spends $1.60 for every $1 it receives in taxes. This is a recipe for a disaster, not for a recovery.

Worse. It actually prevents a real recovery from happening, by blocking the market’s natural self-healing system

Let us ask you this, dear reader: what’s the cure for a depression?

Answer: a depression!

A depression reduces asset prices, consumer prices, and interest rates. This makes it possible for investors and business people to redirect their efforts on projects that will work. A car wash, for example, may not be a good investment at $100,000. But at $50,000 it might produce good cash-flow.

An investment may not make sense if you have to borrow money at 6% interest. But at 3%…the numbers work.

In an ideal world the price of labor falls too. You may not be willing or able to hire extra workers at $10 an hour. But how about at $5?

Trouble is, the feds interfere with these self-healing trends. Minimum wage laws prevent employers from taking advantage of low-quality labor at low prices. Unemployment compensation keeps workers from discounting their own labor. Zero interest rates and bailouts keep the zombies on their feet. Even in the best of circumstances – that is, in a free market – labor rates tend to be “sticky.” They don’t adjust quickly. With the feds applying so much glue, it’s amazing if they can move at all.

But eventually, a depression works its magic. Prices fall. Investors are wiped out. Businesses go bust. The ‘destruction’ of the capital stock frees up both money and labor for new applications. The ‘creative’ part can begin.

Not this time. The feds have created a darkness without a dawn. The glass is 100% empty. There are plenty of clouds. But no silver linings.

There are now more than 6 Americans competing for every job. A normal recovery would see the US economy adding about 500,000 new jobs a month. Instead, last month it added 120,000 and economists hailed it as a major victory. Of course, it needs to create 150,000 jobs just to stay even with population growth. As it is there are 7 million fewer jobs today than there were in 2007…and the number of unemployed people is growing.

In 2007, just 10% of the unemployed had been jobless for 6 months or more. Today, the total is 40%. And with so little growth in the job market, many of these unemployed people will never work again.

What’s the problem?

Truth is, no one really knows. The simple explanation is that there’s a Great Correction going on. But even before the Great Correction, decent jobs were disappearing. The recession of 2001 was followed by the first “jobless recovery.” But every recession since the 1970s has been succeeded by a weaker and weaker recovery.

The feds don’t really have any idea why this is. Every politician and policy wonk suggests the usual remedies – more education, retraining and infrastructure investment. But there is no evidence that any of these things would really make the job picture much better.

As we explained earlier this year, the education industry has been a money pit. Huge amounts of money have been “invested” both by parents and the feds. It doesn’t seem to have helped the economy very much. True, a college grad is more likely to have a job…but only because he’s taking it away from someone without one.

The unemployment problem is a “tough nut to crack,” says The Financial Times.

Of course, we could fix the jobless problem overnight. But people wouldn’t appreciate it. We would simply remove all subsidies for unemployed people…and all restraints on hiring. Labor prices would fall fast. Within days, we’d have full employment again.

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