Iran in the Middle east

[pieter]

[pieter]

[pieter]

[pieter]

[pieter]

[pieter]

[pieter]

Dear folks,

I fear that various elements make the possibility of an US-Iranian war possible. I see three dangerous elements. Firs the fact that the current Islamic Republic of Iran (جمهوری اسلامی ایران (Persian) Jomhuri-ye Eslāmi-ye Irān) exists since 1979 and the fact that since then the Shia Islamic indoctrination of young Iranians with the theology and ideology of Khomeinism began, the Political thought and legacy of Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (24 September 1902 – 3 June 1989) began. This ideology and Shia Islamist Jihadist theology didn't only indocrinate religious Shia Muslims in Iran, but also the Shia Muslims in Lebanon who follow, support, are member of and fight for Hezbollah. And next to that Pro-Iranian Shia Muslims in Syria, Iraq, Yemen (the Houthi rebels), Sudan, Oman, the Caucasus (Azerbaijan), Afghanistan and Pakistan. Shia militia from these countries are present in Syria and were and are fighting against the Syrian opposition, the Free Syrian army, the Al Qadia affiliate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ("Organization for the Liberation of the Levant"), the Islamic State (Daesh) and other Islamist and secular Syrian opposition groups. The Shia Militia who fight against the Syrian opposition forces are Shia militia from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan who fight along side the armed Pro- Syrian Ba'ath party groups, the pro-government militia National Defence Forces (NDF), the Syrian army of Bashar al Assad, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Iranian revolutionary Guards who are fighting in Syria. The Iranian Quds Force gathers intelligence and manages the logistics of the battle(s) for the Syrian Government.

Foreign Shia militias


Afghan Shia Liwa Fatemiyoun fighters during the Palmyra offensive in December 2016


Afghan Shia Liwa Fatemiyoun fighters during the Palmyra offensive in December 2016

Shia fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan are "far more numerous" than Sunni non-Syrian fighters, though they have received "noticeably less attention" from the media. The number of Afghans fighting in Syria on behalf of the Syrian government has been estimated at "between 10,000 and 12,000", the number of Pakistanis is not known (approximately 15% of Pakistan's population is Shia). The main forces are the liwa' fatimiyun (Fatimiyun Brigade) – which is composed exclusively of Afghans and fights "under the auspices" of Hezbollah Afghanistan—and the Pakistani liwa' zaynabiyun (Zaynabiyun Brigade) formed in November 2015. Many or most of the fighters are refugees, and Iran has been accused of taking advantage of their inability to "obtain work permits or establish legal residency in Iran", and using threats of deportation for those who hesitate to volunteer. The fighters are also paid a relatively high salary, and some have told journalists, that "the Islamic State is a common enemy of Iran and Afghanistan ... this is a holy war," and that they wish to protect the Shia pilgrimage site of Sayyida Zaynab, from Sunni jihadis.


A foreign Shia fighter in Syria


Afghan Shiite militias fighting in Syria in support of the regime


Foreign Shia militia men in Syria and one Russian officer

The Shia Cresent in the Middle east is a threat to the Sunni Muslim Arab countries and to Israel.


Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the ideologue and the most important theologian of Shia Muslim Iran, the Lebanese Shia Muslim supporters of Hezbollah, and other Iraqi, Syrian, Saoudi, Yeminity, Omanian, Afghan and Pakistani Shia Muslims.


Hezbollah supporters carry portraits of the founder of Iran’s Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (left), and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as they march in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Hatta on March 18 2017. (photo credit: AFP PHOTO)

Another element of danger is the interest of the Military Industrial Complex in Washington DC., the Pro-War Lobby groups in Washington DC., the Present Trumpist government with it's Trumpist rightwing Populist ideology in the US government and Pro-trump supporters within the Republican party. Populist, Nationalist and egocentric leaders often started wars in the past. I wonder if counterveiling powers in the US-army, the American civil servant corps, the American diplomacy and the Republican and Democratic parties will prevent another disastrous war in an already instabile region.


The military-industrial complex is a nation’s military establishment, as well as the industries involved in the production of armaments and other military materials. In his 1961 farewell address, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower famously warned the public of the nation’s increasingly powerful military-industrial complex and the threat it posed to American democracy.

A destroyed or damaged Iran will expand the chaos, insecurity and terrorist and war zone of Syria and Iraq to Iran. If social order is broken down in Iran, both Shia Islamist Jihadist extremist terrorist and Sunni Muslim Salafist Jihadist extremist terrorist groups will take advantage of the situation and the free zone of extremists will be expanded from Iraq to Iran.

The third element of a possible war is the existing hostile relationship of the 2 major ideological, financial-economical, political, religious (theocratic) and military powers in the region. Shia Muslim Iran versus the Sunni Muslim Saoudi Arabia. Saoudi Arabia will support a US-Iran war on the US side, the leader of the Sunni Muslim world and the heartland and center of Islam (Mecca and Medina, the holiest places of Islam lie in Saoudi Arabia) would love it when the power and influence of the leader of the Shia Muslim world in the Middle east and thus the Shia Cresent would be broken.

An Iran war could instigate a larger Shia-Suni war in the region, and next to that a war or wars about oil and gas fields, oil refinery industries, strategic geopolitical control of water transport routes and in the greater picture influence and dominance in the region. Israel despite being and enemy of Iran will take a reserved and distant approach to the present situation, because a war will be a great risk for Israel and the surrounding moderate Sunni Muslim nations like Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. A war would also be disastrous for the Palestinians. Iran is one of the few financial and military backers of Palestinian political parties, movements and armed groups (militia).

Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the government of Iran has been accused by several countries, including the United States, of funding, providing equipment, weapons, training and giving sanctuary to terrorists. Iran has been accused of training, financing, and providing weapons and safe havens for non-state militant actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and other Palestinian groups (Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC)). These groups are designated terrorist groups by a number of countries and international bodies; however, Iran considers such groups to be "national liberation movements" with a right to self-defense in the face of Israeli military occupation. The United States State Department has also accused Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militias of terrorism against US troops, and Iran of cyberterrorism, primarily through its Quds Force.


Members of the Iranian Quds Force

Cheers,
Pieter

[karl]

Pieter

My self do understand your analysis of the actions of Mr. Trump. The man is not that difficult to understand. He is strictly a buisness man and not a diplomat be any means. He believes in the living legacy of The Deal, in this manner he comes on as a tough negociator to bring on a big dance of smoke and dust then once this clears, makes him self out as the good guy by counter offer nice terms. The issue to this, is, the rest of the world does not buy in to this his mind set. The man is operating a three ring circus with his own goverment and trying this on the rest of the known world. Whilst all this time, play acting with some very dangerous situations that have the potentual of long lasting situations.

For once it was the Russians that were the bad people, now it is the Iranians,,this brings up the question of: Who is next? The man is playing with the Saudies for now, against Iran, with this, of course the Israelis are standing aside to see what develops, for they have little love for the Iranians and wish to keep the Golan heights to them selves our of the hands of the Syrians.

For as with the Russians, they now have a warm water port with the Iranians and wish to keep it.

For all of the above, with the American fleet withen striking distance, it is a question if the Americans can afford to lose one or more of their carriers in a first strike attact.

news.usni.org/2019/05/23/u-s-sends-three-warships-back-into-persian-gulf-after-clearing-them-out-earlier-this-month

Karl

[pieter]

Karl,

The lack of historical, cultural, religious, ethnic, sociological, psychological, geopolitical, diplomatic knowledge of some leaders is stunning. I look at the Middle east with a historical point of view. I know Iranians in the Netherlands, the Persian history, the Iranian pride, the Iranian nationalism and that Iranians will not give in, make compromises or change their point of view easily. They are Farsi speaking, Persian Iranians, not Arabs. Never compare them with Arabs, because that is like to light a fuse in a powder keg.

Iran has a long history of conflict with the West from the ancient Greeks, the Romans, the Byzantine-Persian conflict, the Anglo-Persian War (1 November 1856–4 April 1857), the Mosaddegh affair, the Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh's (16 June 1882 – 5 March 1967) government was overthrown in the 1953 Iranian coup d'état orchestrated by the United States' Central Intelligence Agency and the United Kingdom's MI6. Iranians hold an old grudge against the Americans and British for that. Although many Iranians are against the regime, they will always have some distrust of the West motives.


Mohammad Mosaddegh

Americans and British leaders are most often pragmatic, financial-economical, trade driven, geo-political people, who know that they have to keep good diplomatic ties with various countries in the regions to keep their oil imports and their Petroleum refineries in the oil rich regions. To much wars and civil wars and terrorism is bad for their national interests and the interests of their import & export companies and multi-nationals. Sometimes Western nations support cotrective missions when their interests or the interests of the international communtity are at stake.

Large wars cost billions of dollars, and create 'chaos and anarchy' in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. It did not only cost the Iraqi, Afghan and Syrian populations and authorities a great amount of damaged property, loss of life and insecurity due to terrorism, extremism and the uncontrolable Islamist movements, clans, and corrupt and oppressive leaders, it costed the West, Europe and the USA a lot due to the fact that terrorism from the Middle east reached Europe and the USA and did a lot of dammage there.

How will they control the situation in the Middle east after a large destructive war with Iran, with an instabile Iran with open or not controled borders? The situation will probably deteriorate, because extremist elements will flock into Iran from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Shia-Sunni conflicts might expand, next to ethnic nationalist conflicts, economical warfare and geopolitical games of the worlds largest players.

Cheers,
Pieter

[pieter]

Nieuwsuur (News Hour) is a Dutch current affairs television program produced for the NPO by the public broadcasters NOS and NTR. It is broadcast daily between 10pm and 11pm (10-10:30pm at weekends) on NPO 2. The programme pays particular attention to Dutch and European politics, as well as other international events; in addition, there is a sports news bulletin in each broadcast.


War with Iran? "Saudi Arabia could be the engine behind tensions"



War language from Washington towards Iran, the US Navy and bombers on their way to the Persian Gulf. And this week attacks on oil plants and oil tankers of ally Saudi Arabia with the accusing finger pointing at Tehran. Tension in the region is increasing.

And so the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman called on leaders from the Gulf states and other Arab countries to come to Mecca today. The goal: averting a threatening war with Iran.

Almost all countries in the region responded to the call of the crown prince. "Saudi Arabia wants to show that it's serious, to show muscle. The country traditionally sees itself as the leader of Sunni and now wants to unite all Sunni countries," says Arabist Leo Kwarten.

Traditional recipe

Saudi Arabia has issued a fierce statement to its Shiite arch-enemy Iran. The country is ready to hit back "with all strength and determination" if it is attacked. "Everyone is focused on America as a driver of tensions with Iran, but Saudi Arabia may well be the engine behind the rising tensions," says Kwarten.

"Remember that Saudi Arabia has conducted a major PR campaign in America and is still conducting. It wants to buy into all kinds of think tanks and into the politics of America. Waving the money to buy influence, that is a traditional recipe."

The intentions of America are a mystery according to the arabist. "Do they want to build up the tension to get Iran back to the negotiating table. Or is there more behind it: perhaps the prelude to a military conflict? Nobody knows.

According to Kwarten, it is certain that America has distinguished itself under anti-Iranian measures under Donald Trump. He cites as examples: withdrawing from the nuclear agreement and placing the Revolutionary Guard on the terror list.

Prelude to a war?

"In addition, he makes trade with Iran increasingly difficult. Not only for countries in Europe, but recently also for India and China, countries that until recently were spared by America in this regard. America is attempting to drain Iran from a trade perspective."

The tension in the area is further built up by sending aircraft carriers and troop building to and in the area. Kwarten: "Here again applies: nobody knows why. Is it just a threat, or actually the prelude to a war, or the preparation for a war? We must take it very seriously, in any case."


PERSIAN GULF - Saudi Arabia says two oil tankers were damaged in a "sabotage attack" in Persian Gulf; UAE and Norwegian ships also report damage.

As soon as real danger threatens, like now, the ranks close. Then Iran is united as one against America.

Arabist Leo Kwarten

The recent provocation of Iran is just as strange and inexplicable, according to Kwarten. That would have disabled four oil tankers. "The question is whether that is actually the case. If it does, it gives America a perfect alibi to go to war."

According to US security adviser John Bolton, Iran is or was preparing to attack US troops stationed in the Middle East. Iran, in turn, has called the building of American war material in the region "psychological warfare," intended to intimidate the country.

But Iran does not speak with one mouth, says Quarters. "There are several factions. But as soon as real danger threatens, like now, the ranks close. Then Iran is united as one against America."

Source: nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2286962-oorlog-met-iran-saudi-arabie-zou-motor-achter-spanningen-kunnen-zijn.html Translated from Dutch to English by Google translate by Pieter

[karl]

Pieter

Yes, of course as my self realize, I am not a friend of Saudies, and this for sure, but, non the less, the Saudies do have their rightful place in this known world.

In as of Mr. Bolton, it is difficult to believe or at least understand his belief that Iran would stand alone in any conflict with the US or Saudies for that matter. For the Russians do have some thing to say about this and that is for sure. For the Russians have made their stake in the Gulf region and need their warm water port for their fleet. It is for sure, any incursian against Iran must include Russian forces. This as reason would believe, is also shared by the Saudies if at least by the American Military forces that would have the responsibility of prosecuting any armed conflict with Iranian forces.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/05/28/russia-unlikely-to-stay-neutral-if-us-and-iran-go-to-war-a65771

foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/29/trump-is-driving-iran-into-russias-arms-nuclear-deal-putin-rouhani-sanctions/



Karl