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Post by pieter on Oct 15, 2019 10:10:08 GMT -7
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Post by pieter on Oct 15, 2019 10:13:28 GMT -7
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Post by karl on Oct 15, 2019 11:22:55 GMT -7
Pieter
Of this is not so much a betrayal but a shown of true colours of American foreign policy. Upon the American side, is to the public with their news sources to paint a nice picture of truth that their goverment is true to the colours of their flagg, but to us being off their shore, the picture of truth is not so pretty, but demanding and implied force if not in their favour.
The Kurdish forces now have switched to Syrian forces of Mr. Basher al Assad, who in turn is backed by the military forces of Russian Putin. With the recent invasion of Turkish military forces upon Syrian soil, the future appears to be a darkening of storm clouds once these two military forces meet up upon the field of combat.
It would appear that Mr. Trump is placing his best cards upon his pre-election promise of pulling out American forces out of Syria. With this, a bolstering of weapons and assistance to the Saudis. This of course is to protect American interest in oil and petrolium.
There is a reason for every thing, some times that reason may be elusive for a time, but eventually will come to the surface to show its colours.
Karl
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Post by pieter on Oct 15, 2019 11:23:12 GMT -7
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Post by pieter on Oct 15, 2019 12:40:34 GMT -7
Pieter Of this is not so much a betrayal but a shown of true colours of American foreign policy. Upon the American side, is to the public with their news sources to paint a nice picture of truth that their goverment is true to the colours of their flagg, but to us being off their shore, the picture of truth is not so pretty, but demanding and implied force if not in their favour. The Kurdish forces now have switched to Syrian forces of Mr. Basher al Assad, who in turn is backed by the military forces of Russian Putin. With the recent invasion of Turkish military forces upon Syrian soil, the future appears to be a darkening of storm clouds once these two military forces meet up upon the field of combat. It would appear that Mr. Trump is placing his best cards upon his pre-election promise of pulling out American forces out of Syria. With this, a bolstering of weapons and assistance to the Saudis. This of course is to protect American interest in oil and petrolium. There is a reason for every thing, some times that reason may be elusive for a time, but eventually will come to the surface to show its colours. Karl
I have to say that this is a rather good analysis of the situation from a person who is a citizen of one of the biggest allies of the USA in NATO, Germany with it's Bundeswehr, Luftwaffe, the Deutsche Marine, Kommando Spezialkräfte (KSK), the Kommando Spezialkräfte Marine (KSM) (build around around the Commando Frogmen Company (Kampfschwimmerkompanie), the oldest German special forces unit), the Heeresfliegertruppe (the German Army Aviation Corps), and the Spezialierte Kräfte des Heeres mit erweiteter Grundgefähigung für spezielle Operationen (EGB, the Specialized Forces of the Army with Expanded Basic Qualifications for Special Oparations), the Grenzschutzgruppe 9 der Bundespolizei (Border Protection Group 9 of the Federal Police, GSG 9) and the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND).
In my opinion the USA and it's Western, European allies, Canada and for instance the Australians and New Zealanders should also have been present in Northern-Syria to support and protect the Syrian Kurd allies over there and in the same time the ethnic Syrian Arab, Turkmen, Assyrian Christian and other minorities over there. Today it looks that the USA and Europe (EU) left that area to the Turks, Syrians, Russians and Iranians. In my personal opinion that is sad, because the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (NES), often referred to as Rojava, the de facto autonomous region in northeastern Syria, could have linked itself with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), an autonomous region in Iraq. And together in cooperation the Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds in mutual assistance could have build a safe zone for the Kurds in the region and in the same time for the Arab, Assyrian and Yezidi minorities they are responsible for.
But of course Turkey is absolutely allergic for that idea, because Turkey is allergic for Turkish autonomy in Syria and wrestles with the powerful Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) which is very strong and independent. Turkey fears not only the PKK links with the YPG (People Protection Units) and the SDF, but also that Kurd autonomy in Syria would ignite independence and more autonomy wishes of the already militant, radical and very radical Kurdish Nationalist Turkish Kurds.
The sad thing is that on both sides of the border Syrian and Turkish citizens are the victim of mutual mortars, rpg;s, artillery, heavy machine gun fire, air strikes, lose canons of fringe millitia's, Free Syrian Army fighters, Islamist extremists that aligned with Turkey, the Turkish army, Turkmen militia (who are Pro-Turkish and anti-Kurd), ethnic Sunni Muslim Syrian Arab fighters, Chechen mercenaries, Pro-Turkish Kurd militia's (rivals of the YPG/SDF), and other Pro-Turkish forces. Now the Syrian army and behind them Russia, Iranian revolutionary guards and Hezbollah and maybe Shia militia from Iraq, Yemen and other countries can enter the region the road is free for retalliations, shelling, murder and torture. The Syrian regime is known for revenge actions, of Ba'athist controle of it's territory. Where the Syrian army moves in behind them are people of the notorious Idarat al-Mukhabarat al-Amma (General Intelligence Directorate), better know as the Mukhabarat moves in. And where the Mukhabarat is arrests, prisons, prison camps, torture, murder and executions aren't far away.
Of course elements of the Syrian National Army (Free Syrian Army) on the Turkish side aren't very human rights friendly either. We saw the random executions of Kurd civilians in Northern Syria last couple of days and the murder of Hevrin Khalaf, (Kurdish: Hevrîn Xelef) (15 November 1984 – 12 October 2019) a Kurdish-Syrian politician and civil engineer, serving as Secretary General of the Kurdish Future Movement in Syria party. She was killed by members of the Ahrar al-Sharqiya (Free Men of the East), an Islamist, Jihadist and Arab Nationalist armed Syrian rebel group. Many fighters in Ahrar al-Sharqiya are former al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham members. Hevrin Khalaf had taken part in negotiations with the United States, France, and other delegations. She was known for her diplomatic skills. Khalaf worked towards increasing tolerance and unity among Christians, Arabs, and Kurds. Hevrin Khalaf was killed by Turkish-backed Ahrar al-Sharqiya fighters near the M4 Motorway in Northern Syria during the Turkish military operation against Kurdish SDF forces in Rojava on 12 October 2019. I hope that the Turks and Russians will come to their senses, because a Turkish-Russian war in Syria will be like like putting a flame next to a powder keg. Old, centuries old breaking lines will come to the surface. The Old Russian-Ottoman divide. Such a war would be a large regional war with Turkey with other Turkic peoples and some Sunni Muslim Arab backers on one side and the Russians, the Syrian regime, Iran, Hezbollah, Shia militia's and probably Egypt on the other side (Egypt has close ties with Russia today). China might also back the Russians and Syrians. In the region Turkey will receive the backing of Bosnian, Albanian, Turkmen, Azerbaijani, Uzbek, Kazakh, Kirgiz, Chechen, Uyghur, and Diaspora Turkish fighters who will go to Syria to fight. Turkey will manifest itself as the Sunni Muslim force aligned with the Syrian National Army (Free Syrian army), the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and Syrian Sunni Muslim Arabs and Turkmen in general. Many Sunni Muslim Arab states will stay neutral however, because Arabs and Arab countries aren't very fond of Turks, due to the Ottoman heritage in the region. And that feeling is mutual.Many Turks do not only dislike Kurds, Armenians and Greeks, but they also dislike Arabs.
Cheers,
Pieter |
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Post by pieter on Oct 15, 2019 17:14:04 GMT -7
The other side for Audi alteram partem ( "listen to the other side", or "let the other side be heard as well")
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Post by karl on Oct 15, 2019 17:30:53 GMT -7
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Post by pieter on Oct 16, 2019 6:26:14 GMT -7
Karl,
Seen the situation this might be not so bad for the local Kurd, Arab, Assyrian and other populations in that region. The Russians are disciplined, professional and Russian military police on the ground is not so pad at all. The Americans went away, so it is logical that the Russians went in and probably will take over that abandoned American army base the Russian journalist was talking about. You know that I am not a fan of Russians (nobody with Polish blood is), but this is not bad for the local population. Where the Russians are the Turks won't attack. Because Russians will have less restraint to attack Turkey if they are attacked. And if Russia is attacked, Russia's allies will back Russia.
The Russian Federation is part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO; Russian: Организация Договора о Коллективной Безопасности, Organizacija Dogovora o Kollektivnoj Bezopasnosti, ODKB), a Military alliance with 6 former Soviet republics: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. In a Russian-Turkish war it would be hard to engage Turkic former Sovjet republics like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in a battle with Turkey. For the small Armenia a battle with the for Armenia huge and superior Turkey would be a dangerous endeavour. Russia might get support from Pro-Russian mercenaries from Greece, Serbia, Eastern-Ukraine (the Donbas region), the Russian Federation, Macedonia and Pro-Russian European nationalists (except from Poland).
More likely in the case of a large scale war that Russia would get the backing of larger Russian military allies like Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and the financial, logistic and military aid backing of China. Due to military sanctions Turkey will look more East wards, more into the Middle east and the Muslim world to find trade partners and economical ties. Turkey will move away further from the West, further away from both Europe and the USA. In the same time it will move away further from other Western nations like Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The Turkish diaspora in Europe is devived, because there are many ethnic minorities in that Turkish diaspora who are Pro-Syrian Kurds. Of course the Turkish Kurds within the Turkish diaspora, but also ethnic Alevi's, Armenian Kurds, Leftist Turks with a Pro-Kurd agenda and etc.
Turkey is stubborn, tough, doctrinaire, absolutist, Patriarchal and dangerous in it's present political and military course. There is a militarist, Islamist and Pan-Turkic element in the Turkish approach. Turkey want's to show it is one of the regional powers in the Middle east and that it is an important 'Muslim force'. Turkey backs radical Islamist Sunni Muslim Arab organisations inside the Syrian National Army (the Free Syrian Army), like the Ahrar al-Sharqiya fighters, who killed the Kurd politician Hevrin Khalaf near the M4 Motorway in Northern Syria during the Turkish military operation against Kurdish SDF forces in Rojava on 12 October 2019.
Cheers,
Pieter
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