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Post by justjohn on Aug 13, 2008 4:20:39 GMT -7
A much more interesting issue may come to light as a result of this conflict. What happens if the Government of the Ukraine decides to not let the Russian Black Sea Fleet back into Sevastopol? Will the PM Putin then send in "peacekeepers" to help the Russians that live there from the oppression from the Kiev government? Crimea is 58% Russian, but IS part of Ukraine. Why shouldn't Russia help them with their independence too? Wayne By Henry Meyer Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Now that Russia has humiliated Georgia with a punishing military offensive, it may shift its attention to reining in pro-Western Ukraine, another American ally in the former Soviet Union. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's first order of business likely will be to try to thwart Ukraine's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. ``The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine of the damages of allying itself with NATO,'' said Geoffrey Smith at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev. The U.S. has long seen Georgia and Ukraine as counterweights to Russia's influence in the region. Opposition leaders in the two countries came to power after U.S.-backed popular protests in 2003 and 2004. Their ascension advanced an American strategy of expanding NATO to include both countries and securing energy routes from the Caspian Sea that bypass Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to Turkey runs through Georgia. The future effectiveness of that policy is now in doubt, with Georgia's U.S.-educated President Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, weakened by a five-day blitz that his American patrons were powerless to halt. Medvedev, 42, and Putin, 56, say Russia began the offensive in response to a drive by Georgia to restore control over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Now Russia has ousted Georgian forces from there and from Abkhazia, another separatist region, and destroyed much of the central government's military. Less Confident ``Georgia will be enormously more careful in its actions in the future, and much less confident of its relationship with the United States,'' said U.S.-based geopolitical advisory group Stratfor in a research note. NATO is due in December to review the two countries' bids to join the Western military alliance. NATO leaders in April promised Ukraine and Georgia eventual membership while declining them fast- track status. Russia, which has also denounced U.S. plans to station missile defense sites in former Soviet satellites Poland and the Czech Republic, says the expansion of the Cold War-era alliance to its borders is a security threat. NATO should affirm the potential of Georgia and Ukraine to become alliance members in the face of Russia's incursion into Georgia, senior U.S. officials said yesterday in Washington. ``Russia may find it convenient to raise the level of tension with Ukraine in the run-up to the December NATO review,'' Citigroup Inc.'s London-based David Lubin and Ali Al- Eyd wrote in a note to clients. ``If the conflict with Russia decelerates or reverses Georgia's integration with the West, a similar fate could also affect Ukraine.'' Divided Country Ukraine has a large Russian-speaking population in the south and east that opposes NATO entry and looks to Moscow. Russian officials warn that if President Viktor Yushchenko pushes Ukraine into NATO, the nation may split in two. Russia has made its displeasure with Ukraine clear in recent years, cutting off gas supplies to the country in 2005 and reducing deliveries earlier this year. The military operation in Georgia will serve ``as a warning'' to Ukraine that it should desist from petitioning for NATO entry, said Janusz Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ``Otherwise, Moscow may intervene to protect the allegedly threatened interests of the Russian population.'' Too Aggressive An overly aggressive move by Russia against Ukraine might invite a backlash, said Renaissance Capital's Smith. ``If it reacts too violently against Ukraine, then it risks provoking the reaction it least wants: trade and investment barriers for its companies, a more antagonistic approach to energy transit, and above all, it risks scaring Ukraine into seeking western protection,'' he said. Germany and France opposed NATO entry for Georgia and Ukraine because of the Georgian separatist disputes and opposition to membership among some Ukrainians. They now will feel their concerns have been justified, said Cliff Kupchan of New-York based Eurasia Group a political risk consulting firm. ``Considering both European reticence and possible fears about Ukraine, I think it is very much on the slow track,'' he said, referring to NATO membership for both states. The assault by Russian artillery, tanks and bombers inflicted significant damage on Georgia's armed forces, which last month increased their size to 37,000 soldiers. Russia's military has 1.13 million personnel. The U.S. trained and equipped Georgia's military and in 2006 approved almost $300 million in aid over five years. Army Regroups ``A substantial part of our military power has been destroyed,'' said Georgian National Security Council chief Kakha Lomaia. ``However, we did preserve the core of our army, and have managed to regroup it close to the capital.'' An airbase in Senaki was destroyed and three Georgian ships blown up in the Black Sea port of Poti, he said. A month ago, about 1,000 U.S. soldiers joined 600 Georgians and 100 from Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia in joint exercises at the Vaziani military base near Tbilisi. Russia repeatedly bombed the base during this month's war. ``The American role in the region has been weakened,'' Jan Techau, a European and security affairs analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in a telephone interview. ``It's a reassertion of Russia's dominant role in the region.'' Ian Hague, a Bank of Georgia board member and fund manager with $1.8 billion in the former Soviet Union, said the attack on Georgia discouraged Western investments in energy infrastructure by raising the risk premium. ``It's somewhat reminiscent, in 1939, when Stalin attacked Finland,'' former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told Bloomberg Television. ``I think this kind of confrontation is the best kind of answer as to why they are seeking to be members of NATO.'' Last Updated: August 12, 2008 19:26 EDT |
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Post by justjohn on Aug 13, 2008 5:02:42 GMT -7
One of the causes for this last clash, in my opinion was the recognition of Kosova as an independent country. The Russians looked upon it as if it was OK for the Kosova people to separate from Serbia, then it should be OK for Ossetia and Abkhazia to separate from Georgia. Unfortunately, the Russian peace keepers had an agenda of their own. That was not the case with KFOR. Wayne Wayne, you are absolutely correct about this cause. If memory serves me correctly, Putin did state in fact a tit-for-tat response was coming. Excerpt from 'Washington note': Yet many both outside and even inside the Bush administration predicted that the U.S. decision to champion Kosovo independence without Serbian consent would lead Moscow to become more assertive in establishing its presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Kremlin made abundantly clear that it would view Kosovo's independence without Serbian consent and a U.N. Security Council mandate as a precedent for the two Georgian de facto independent enclaves. Furthermore, while President Saakashvili was making obvious his ambition to reconquer Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow was both publicly and privately warning that Georgia's use of force to reestablish control of the two regions would meet a tough Russian reaction, including, if needed, air strikes against Georgia proper. So it would be interesting to know what President Saakashvili was thinking when, on Thursday night, after days of relatively low-level shelling around the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali (which both South Ossetians and Georgians blamed on each other), and literally hours after he announced on state-controlled TV the cessation of hostilities, he ordered a full-scale assault on Tskhinvali. And mind you, the assault could only succeed if the Georgian units went right through the battalion of Russian troops serving as international peacekeepers according to agreements signed by Tbilisi itself in the 1990s. A very valid question. Don't you think? |
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Post by Atlantis5 on Aug 13, 2008 6:30:02 GMT -7
Wayne, you are absolutely correct about this cause. If memory serves me correctly, Putin did state in fact a tit-for-tat response was coming. Excerpt from 'Washington note': Yet many both outside and even inside the Bush administration predicted that the U.S. decision to champion Kosovo independence without Serbian consent would lead Moscow to become more assertive in establishing its presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Kremlin made abundantly clear that it would view Kosovo's independence without Serbian consent and a U.N. Security Council mandate as a precedent for the two Georgian de facto independent enclaves. Furthermore, while President Saakashvili was making obvious his ambition to reconquer Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow was both publicly and privately warning that Georgia's use of force to reestablish control of the two regions would meet a tough Russian reaction, including, if needed, air strikes against Georgia proper. So it would be interesting to know what President Saakashvili was thinking when, on Thursday night, after days of relatively low-level shelling around the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali (which both South Ossetians and Georgians blamed on each other), and literally hours after he announced on state-controlled TV the cessation of hostilities, he ordered a full-scale assault on Tskhinvali. And mind you, the assault could only succeed if the Georgian units went right through the battalion of Russian troops serving as international peacekeepers according to agreements signed by Tbilisi itself in the 1990s. A very valid question. Don't you think? Yes, these actions were very evident in-as-much as short recent history has displayed. Wayne is very correct with his assessment of Kosovo. Our world is changing, and it is difficult to change with it,but this must be. For most all people, need and require their freedom as an independent country. In-as-much of Kosovo, it was a blessing for their freedom from Serbia. Very deservingly so, in light of the war years and brutality brought against the Albanians from the Serbs. Now, Serbia is changing with the Russian investments into the infrastructure. The following url is but only a small portion and not that of prior. www.mnweekly.ru/world/20070921/55277966.htmlCharles |
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Post by Jaga on Aug 13, 2008 8:02:50 GMT -7
Just to tell you the other side of the story - there is an article in Gazeta Wyborcza - one of the main Polish newspaper about people in Ossetia. It has interviews with the residents there telling about many civilians being killed by Georgian forces which invaded this region before Russian contra-attack. wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/Wiadomosci/1,80269,5582372,Mieszkancy_Cchinwali_wychodza_z_piwnic.html they talk about tanks that where aiming in the civilians trying to hide in the houses etc... about a pregnant women who was too slow to hide in the basement so she was killed and the neighbor already buried her. ++++ I do not want to defend Russians and its attack but I just show that Georgian decision to invade autonomous Ossetia in the first place was not a good decision. |
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Post by Atlantis5 on Aug 13, 2008 8:30:11 GMT -7
Just to tell you the other side of the story - there is an article in Gazeta Wyborcza - one of the main Polish newspaper about people in Ossetia. It has interviews with the residents there telling about many civilians being killed by Georgian forces which invaded this region before Russian contra-attack. wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/Wiadomosci/1,80269,5582372,Mieszkancy_Cchinwali_wychodza_z_piwnic.html they talk about tanks that where aiming in the civilians trying to hide in the houses etc... about a pregnant women who was too slow to hide in the basement so she was killed and the neighbor already buried her. ++++ I do not want to defend Russians and its attack but I just show that Georgian decision to invade autonomous Ossetia in the first place was not a good decision. Thank you Jaga I think perhaps it is not so much defending the Russian action, but more so, the presentation of truth. For we as people, are dependent upon our respective news media for information of that we hold a great trust of. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. For with each respective news media, is the conditions of restraint that is placed upon its respective publication. If not to hold to those restraints, they face the prospect of forced restraints. Then, there is the hold over of old thinking mind-set. The refusal of new learning with associated continuation of prior value systems. I have of recent, begin to wonder, how are we actually perceived in Europe from the general North American prospective. Are we perceived as the old country of quaint hut typen buildings, with narrow stone and brick roadways with the spot areas of modern office only buildings? The vacation land to visit, ogle as of a museum, then the contrast of the Autobahn as a play ground? Charles |
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Post by wayneprice on Aug 13, 2008 9:57:10 GMT -7
Jaga, Again, there is no excuse for the deliberate targeting of civilians, if that happened. The Russians however have waged an information war as well. Unfortunately, in war, the truth is often the first victim. www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4429 "The Kremlin’s Virtual Army" By Evgeny Morozov Posted August 2008 Shadowy hackers in Moscow and St. Petersburg? Old news. Get ready for the next generation of Russian cyberwarriors. Hack attack: Russian hackers defaced the Web site of the Georgian Foreign Ministry with a collage comparing Saakashvili with Hitler. It started as a fairly predictable digital conflict, mimicking the one in the real world and displaying no shortage of “conventional” cyberwarfare: Web pages were attacked, comments were erased, and photos were vandalized. A typical prank on the Georgian Foreign Ministry’s Web site visually compared Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili with Adolf Hitler. As Russian tanks lumbered southward over mountainous Ossetian terrain, Russian netizens were seeking to dominate the digital battlefield. But sophomoric pranks and cyberattacks were only the first shots of a much wider online war in which Russian bloggers willingly enlisted as the Kremlin’s grass-roots army. For Russian netizens, “unconventional” cyberwarfare—winning the hearts and minds of the West—became more important than crashing another server in Tbilisi. Managing information seemed all the more urgent as there were virtually no images from the first and the most controversial element in the whole war—the Georgian invasion of Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia—and the destruction that, were one to believe the Kremlin’s account, followed shortly thereafter. Much of the public argument for a harsh response among Russians rested on Kremlin-backed reports of extremely high casualties among South Ossetia’s soldiers and the civilian population, which Georgians fervently denied. This lack of clarity and factual evidence only ratcheted up the speculative nature of most discussions. Those skeptical of the official statistics argued that the government could have fabricated the figures. In response, a group of Russian bloggers sent a public letter to SUP, the Russian company that owns and manages LiveJournal, one of the most popular blog services in the country (but legally still an American entity). They asked it to impose curbs on free speech and censor anyone seeking to undermine Russia’s war effort by expressing pro-Georgian sentiment. “Regular laws of peaceful times do not apply; we are at war!” read their somewhat hysterical letter. (Thankfully, SUP ignored their demands.) Not everyone in the Russian blogosphere shared concerns about the war; its obscenely rich, glossy, and too self-absorbed fraction carried on as usual. “I don’t give a f**k about this war” is a very loose translation of a post that Artemij Lebedev, one of Russia’s most famous digerati and bohemians (and this year’s Young Global Leader in Davos to boot), wrote on his LiveJournal blog. The post received more than 900 comments and was followed by a photo of a nude woman. Young global leadership for new times, indeed. Amid the millions of comments that Russian bloggers wrote on the issue, a few themes started to emerge. The dominant narrative was that of a grand anti-Russian conspiracy carried out by the Western media. As reports from American and European media poured in—many with extremely graphic images of the destruction caused by Russia’s bombing of Georgian towns—some Russian bloggers despaired that their government couldn’t respond with its own powerful imagery and words. “Russia doesn’t have its own CNN, and this is felt really badly. … The government’s objective for the next few years should be to create a powerful propaganda machine and train thousands of highly qualified and ideologically faithful journalists. This task is as important as the production of new nuclear [war]heads,” wrote one such blogger. Russia does, incidentally, have its own mini-CNN. It’s a very well-endowed channel called Russia Today that broadcasts in English and aims to reach a global audience. Yet although many readers in the West were still missing many details about South Ossetia (perhaps the best time to feed them Kremlin propaganda), Russia Today was still not catching up with its Western counterparts in terms of professionalism. “Get it off your chest” is how they named their Web forum on the war. If this was meant as propaganda, it wasn’t very subtle. With Russia Today unwilling or unfit to fulfill its global mandate, some patriotic Russian netizens decided to wage their own propaganda campaigns. Like their Chinese colleagues who, earlier in the year, rushed to YouTube and Web sites of foreign media to leave comments about Tibet and the Olympics, Russians didn’t think twice before flooding the Web sites of CNN and BBC with comments. Even very marginally related online venues—such as the European forum of the popular game World of Warcraft—were hijacked by angry Russian commenters (the threads have been subsequently deleted). The most educated among them even started posting simultaneously in two languages—Russian and English—to convince speakers of both. Many of their comments pointed to inaccuracies in Western reporting and contained examples of possible mistakes in several graphic images from the war that the West might be taking at face value. “People of the world. You deceive! World mass media conduct propagation of a false information,” begins one such comment titled “Typical Address to Stupid Foreigners.” Bloggers encouraged each other to repost it on English-language sites as part of the campaign to “educate” the Western public (according to Google, this very comment has been reposted hundreds of times in the past few days). The assumption that some Russian bloggers made was that if only the West could read accounts of the great injustice Georgians had inflicted upon South Ossetia, they could be converted to the Russian cause. So, relying on tools such as Google Docs, a popular online platform for sharing documents, they quickly split the work of compiling and then translating the timeline of the events into English. It seemed crucial to have enough reports to show that it was Georgia that first attacked South Ossetia. No matter how the real conflict between Russia and Georgia ultimately ends, Russia’s young people are joining their Chinese counterparts in a great fight to make Western media more sympathetic to their countries. They are unlikely to succeed, but their very actions suggest much greater self-confidence on the world stage than their parents could ever exhibit. It remains to be seen whether their belligerence ends at fighting Western media in “comment warfare” or spills into more radical attacks. " Wayne |
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nathanael
Cosmopolitan
: “Die Wahrheit macht frei und ist das Fundament der Einheit (John Paul II)
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Post by nathanael on Aug 13, 2008 13:43:14 GMT -7
Russia has no right to enslave and oppress nations in the XXI century! There is no such right in the world! The territorial disputes have existed since times immemorial. They were always brutally resolved. But we have grown up in terms of civilization! Russia must be stopped! The disputes must be resolved civilly in the modern world. Because the disputes are often mightily protractive and difficult, they must be resolved with a lot of patience and good will! Kosovo precedent was a colossal mistake! Serbia lost a territory that belonged to it for thousand years because of some faceless Washington and Brussels bureaucrats! That's the wrong way to resolve these disputes! We see the result in South Ossetia and Abkhazia! These regions cannot just say, "we want to be independent" ... and become independent! If this were so, what about hundreds of other regions in the world that want to secede! We must devise better ways, more patient ways to deal with secessional ambitions!
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george
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Post by george on Aug 13, 2008 15:17:32 GMT -7
Jaga, no offence, because the Polish Presdent and a couple of Prime Ministers travel to Georgia will not make Russia's knees knock.
Look guys, we are impotent in so far a Georgia is concerned. And if youi guys think that the US will open up a third front to help the Georgians out then well, i have some swamp land in Florida i would like to sell you. We are NOT the worlds keeper. If Gergia wants what it wants, it will have to fend mostly for itself. The US should NOT send its volinteers to a country most couldn't find on a map. And it should not. Our non conscript army is not big enough. Are we to start a draft to go on this new adventure. Yeah, sure the American people will go for that. Lets be realistic. There's not a darn thing we can do about it. Our biggest mistake was giving Georgia false hopes. That was cruel and shorsighted.
I'm not about to send my son to fight for Georgia's freedom. It has no US intrests plain and simple. If Europe wants to free one of its own, then let Europe get off it ass and do it like they did during the Bosnia tradegy. Oh, wait a minute, they did nothing, even though it was in their own backyard. Never mind!
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Post by Atlantis5 on Aug 13, 2008 18:55:22 GMT -7
Jaga, no offence, because the Polish Presdent and a couple of Prime Ministers travel to Georgia will not make Russia's knees knock. Look guys, we are impotent in so far a Georgia is concerned. And if youi guys think that the US will open up a third front to help the Georgians out then well, i have some swamp land in Florida i would like to sell you. We are NOT the worlds keeper. If Gergia wants what it wants, it will have to fend mostly for itself. The US should NOT send its volinteers to a country most couldn't find on a map. And it should not. Our non conscript army is not big enough. Are we to start a draft to go on this new adventure. Yeah, sure the American people will go for that. Lets be realistic. There's not a d**n thing we can do about it. Our biggest mistake was giving Georgia false hopes. That was cruel and shorsighted. I'm not about to send my son to fight for Georgia's freedom. It has no US intrests plain and simple. If Europe wants to free one of its own, then let Europe get off it ass and do it like they did during the Bosnia tradegy. Oh, wait a minute, they did nothing, even though it was in their own backyard. Never mind! George I do agree with you with an exception: We were there as also that of my self on 2 assignments in Kosovo, but I do not remember to see you there, where were you? www.germany.info/relaunch/info/archives/background/bwehr_fact_sheet.htmlwww.iht.com/articles/2006/10/31/news/germany.phpThat was a stinking war and brutal. The Serbs hated the Albainians. Charles |
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Post by Jaga on Aug 13, 2008 20:04:35 GMT -7
Wayne, you are very right of course. Russia propaganda works there too and try to present the invasion to their citizens as necessary step. Here is a very interesting clip about double-standard of invading other countries from American perspective. He is joking from the fact that the invasions are banned... in Europe but not somewhere else like in Iraq for instance: www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=179208&title=anti-olympic-update-in-europeAnti-Olympic Update - In Europe It's amazing how adding the phrase "in Europe" makes our military actions more palatable, even fun. |
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Post by Jaga on Aug 13, 2008 20:22:42 GMT -7
Jaga, no offence, because the Polish Presdent and a couple of Prime Ministers travel to Georgia will not make Russia's knees knock. .... I'm not about to send my son to fight for Georgia's freedom. It has no US intrests plain and simple. If Europe wants to free one of its own, then let Europe get off it ass and do it like they did during the Bosnia tradegy. Oh, wait a minute, they did nothing, even though it was in their own backyard. Never mind! George, I think any talk about American military engagement in Georgia is dangerous. This conflict has to be solved dyplomatically. |
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Post by wayneprice on Aug 14, 2008 8:07:31 GMT -7
Jaga,
Not "engagement", but involvement would be good.
The biggest lesson out of this is that when "peacekeepers" come in with an agenda, they are not peacekeepers but "interested" parties to the conflict.
My hope at this point for a REAL, long lasting peace in Georgia is that an honestly neutral peacekeeping force be put together by the EU/NATO and sent in. I'd love to see a Polish/Estonian/Ukrainian/ Lithuanian/ Latvian force between the Russians and the Georgians, but does anyone really think that the Russians will let that happen? Would those countries be willing, and able to send the troops? My estimate would be at least 5,000 soldiers plus the necessary logistics support.
There are already enough loop holes in the Sarkozy temporary agreement, and those need to be ironed out and clarified. The main loop hole involves the definition of "other security measures". Occupation of the Georgian home land is NOT an "other security measure"! IF for the sake of argument, we agree that Ossetia and Abkhazia are NOT part of Georgia, (which of course under international law, they are), how does the Bear justify the occupation of Poti? Gori? Clearly, they are NOT part of either Ossetia or Abkhazia !!!
Also, this incursion by the Russians, shows the West that while the Bear has taken off his red neckerchief, he is STILL a Bear!
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george
Cosmopolitan
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Post by george on Aug 14, 2008 14:40:21 GMT -7
George
"I do agree with you with an exception: We were there as also that of my self on 2 assignments in Kosovo, but I do not remember to see you there, where were you?"
No i was not ever in Kosovo, however, i was in Vietnam. And having been to Vietnam, i can tell you the total stupidity of that conflict. I was a draftee, not part of the non conscript army. I think thats part of what got us into Iraq. Americans are not as critical if SOMEBODY elses's kid is there to fight. See any protest on college campuse's lately?
Personelly i couldn't care less if you were in Kosovo, because we are NOT talking about Kosovo, were taking about Georgia, and we can do nothing for them. Those are the facts. The Georgia army dropped their weapons and ran. Don't expect us to pick up where they left off. And as far as Serbia is concerned, its amazing how Europeon armies were there after the US stabilized the situation. It reminds me of the calvary who comes down AFTER the battle to shoot the wounded. Something very familiar to a particular central Europeon nation during World War 2 who subdued the civilian population by murdering civilians. Such as dragging them out hospital's and killing them. And by murdering unarmed civilians . Men woman, and children. One of the most cowardly acts in the history of mankind. This central Europeon nation will have that military cowardice follow them for century's to come. If God doesn't kick their ass first.
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Post by freetobe on Aug 14, 2008 16:02:41 GMT -7
Hey guys and gals,
The USA has a suitcase of difficulties to deal with because of the last 8 years. Isn't it about time the EU nations stepped up to help the Georgians? Are they worried that Russia will shut down the Baku oil pipeline? Come on Europe solve ypur own problems, niave Americans have enough on their plates.
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Post by Jaga on Aug 14, 2008 20:50:42 GMT -7
Hey guys and gals, The USA has a suitcase of difficulties to deal with because of the last 8 years. Isn't it about time the EU nations stepped up to help the Georgians? Are they worried that Russia will shut down the Baku oil pipeline? Come on Europe solve ypur own problems, niave Americans have enough on their plates. freetobe, this is just what happened. Thanks to mediations of the French president Sarlozy, EU current leader, Russia stopped its attacks. Also 4 other presidents visited Gergia during the last week. Why some people in the US are not aware of it I do not know. Maybe the mass media do not talk enough about what is going on there or they stress only American involvement. |
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