Dear John and Karl,
There is clearly a difference between Western-Europe and the Eastern-part of Central-Europe in political, social-cultural, financial, religious and ethnic built up. Where Central- and Eastern-Europe is clearly Monocultural, where the Western-European nations are increasinly multi-cultural. Secondly Western-Europe for 70 years had the cultural influences of larger Western Democratic and Capitalist countries and societies like the British, American, Canadian and Australian ones. In Karl and my North-West European context, a lot of our German, Danish, Frisian and Dutch people immigrated to the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South-Africa, Great-Britain (The United Kingdom) and in the Dutch context also Scandinavia (Dutch farmers leave the Netherlands due to strict European EU legislation and Dutch laws that make farming difficult. So a lot of farmers left the Netherlands forever and moved to Norway and Sweden. Other Dutch farmers moved to Poland, Ukraine, Canada, the USA - you have a lot of US towns with the name of Holland, Friesland, Vriesland, Zeeland and etc.- And Dutch farmers went to Southern-America and in some cases created succesful, large diary corporations - a collective of Dutch farmerrs over there-). The Dutch and Danish nations are small, but the Danes and Dutch are trade people (import & export), Maritime transport nations (large commercial navy fleets), international fishing nations with modern fishing fleets, countries with a well know and respected Danish Design and Dutch Design (creative people - fashion designers, graphic designers, 3D designers,
flower designers, inventors, artists -photographers, painters, sculpturist, movie makers-, architects), scientists (who do not only work and live in Copenhagen and Amsterdam, but also in Berlin, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Wolfsburg, Munich, Stuttgart, Frankfurt am Main, -in the German car industry and the German financial sector - there was a wellknown Dutch designer of BMW, nou doubt there will be various talented Danes working for German industries too. Danes have their wonderful Bang & Olufsen designs of television and Audio sound systems.- These creative Danes and Dutchmen are also to be found in Paris, London, New York, LA, Warsaw, Dubai, Cape Town, Oslo and Stokholm)
You could say with our Nordic Social Democratic and liberal heritages ( a more liberal heritage of Roman-Catholicism and Protestantism in the late 20th and early 21th century) and early 20th century secularisation process, that we are very different than the Central- and Eastern-European countries, societies and thus cultures. Communism in some cases preserved old traditions, customs and dissident ideas in Central- and Eastern-European families, peoples and groups. Our Danish and Dutch cultures were a merger of our own liberal Danish and Dutch native European (national) cultures and the influence of our Western-European neighbours, Great-Britain (the United Kingdom), the USA (I belong to the first Americanized European generation. Dutch people and Danes grew up with American pop culture, pop art and American cinema, sitcoms and comedies. That American culture merged with the BBC culture and British English education at our schools), France, Italy, and in our Dutch context the influence of Germany and Belgium (the Southern Flemish influence on our Northern Dutch culture - Flemish TV, radio, Flemish music -folk/peoples music, Flemish cuisine, Belgian beers, Flemish cinema and etc.)
Poland however maintained a national culture. For a long time due to a distrust of it's Western and Eastern neighbours, the Germans and Russians, and some problems the Poles had and have with the Lithuanians and the Ukrainians. In the same time the Poles are clearly different than the Czechs and Slovaks who have a very different West-Slavic language and culture than the Poles. Czechs and Slovaks are also much more secular than the Poles. Due to Polish opposition to German (Prussian), Austrian, Scandinavian (Swedish) and Russian influences and occupation in the past, the Poles created a culture which was opposite to the culture of their Western and Eastern neighbors. The Polish people and culture are clearly different than the German, Austrian, Czech, Slovak, Ukrainian, Russian, Belarussian, Baltic and Scandinavian cultures in the neighborhood of Poland. In the Polish mindset, in Polish Patriotism and Polish nationalism that is very clear. The willpower and determination to be independent, sovereign, Free, autonomous (on their continent and in their region). The heritage of occupation and the pressure from outside powers still lives in the Polish people. In the same time the Polish culture, history, present and future is clearly influenced by for instance the Prussian, Austrian and Russian occupations, Swedish rule (the Wasa king), Bohemian (Czech) and Lithuanian influences, Jewish, Dutch, Georgian and Armenian immigrants, Italian architects and painters (in the Renaissance era), Ukrainian, Vietnamese and Chinese immigrants today, and some African immigration. (There are Black Polish peronalities today - from politicians to priests, to entertainers -) So eventhough Poland is still a very homogenous country, the country is changing too.
The Netherlands, Germany and Denmark have completely changed due to mass immgration from former colononies (in the Dutch case) and muslim countries like Turkey, Morocco, Algeria, Tunesia and Egypt. Today you can ad to that Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians, Iraqi people, Somalians, Sudanese, Afghans, Pakistani people, Eritreans, Bosnians, Iranians, Kurds (from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran), Indonesia, Chechenia, China (Uyghurs from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in the People's Republic of China), and Muslims from black African counties in Central-, West- and North-Africa. It would be hypocritical to say that mass immigration is something from the late 20th century and the beginning of the 21th century. In Europe we had the Migration Period in the middle of the first millennium AD. (AD 21–700) Later we had the waves of Jewish immigrants (both Sephardic and Ashkenazi), the French Huegenots and German settlers. We have to admid that the Jewish, French (Huegenot) and German immigration partly was contributing to our Dutch and Danish wealth. People of Jewish, French and German heritage were succesful entrepreneurs, Industrialists, scientists, artists and craftsmen. Today we see a Turkish and Moroccan middle class of shop keepers, horeca, market salesmen, cab drivers, workers, entrepreneurs and businesspeople. As a minority they have to struggle harder, study harder and work harder to achieve things than native Europeans. Due to discrimination on the labour market, prejudices, xenophobia in our societies. Therefor you could say that you have both a migrant pillar of let's say Moroccan and Turkish ethic sectors in our societies and Turks and Moroccans who work for Dutch, Danish and German employers in the private sector, our respective governments and state companies. In a few decades we will have Dutch, Danish and German Muslims with a Turkish, Moroccan, Algerian, Tunesian, Syrian, Bosnian, Iranian and Afghan heritage who will be disconnected to the country of origin, because grandparents, parents, uncles and aunts of the first generation will be gone. These people will increasingly identify themselves as Danes, Dutch people and Germans. A lot of the last generation of Third generation guestworkers (migrants) speak Turkish or Moroccan poorly, or hardly speak Turkish or Moroccan at all. Ethnically, culturally and religiously they look as Turks and Moroccans, but linguistically and even culturally they are far away or disconnected from the country of their grandparents birth. It's like Americans with Polish, Irish, Italian or Dutch roots. These people carry European names of their ancesters, but they don't speak Polish, Irish (Gaelic, the Celtic language), Italian or Dutch. They are Americans. In the same way you have Dutch Turks who are more Dutch than Turkish. I know Turks who didn't vote in the Turkish referendum. They told me that that Referendum is for Turks in Turkey to decide. I am a Dutchman a Turkish-Dutch fellow told me. I didn't vote!
Karl, I think perhaps
Justyna Pawlak maybe a bit slow in international manoeuvre, but don't be to tough on her. She has a Central-European mindset that is different from our North-West-European mindset. It is perfectly logical that Poland wants to bolster regional trade and infrastructure with it's South-Western (Czech), Southern (Slovakia and Hungary), and North-Eastern (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) neighbours. We Dutch have our
Benelux with the
Belgians and
Luxemburg neighbours, good bilateral ties with
Germany and excellent trade ties with
Poland, the UK and
the USA. It is perfectly understandable that Poland next to it's
Weimar Triangle connection with Berlin and Paris and the strong historical ties with Washington wants to strenghen it's regional social-economic, financial, political and cultural ties with the neighbors in the hood.
The Polish economy had huge losses due to the Western boycot of Russia and the Russian counter sanctions of Polish agricultural and other products. The Poles want to find new markets for their products.
I don't think that creating a Polish market for American sourced LNG {earth gas} is beneficial for Poland. Poland has it's own gas production today. But for natural gas the country still is almost completely dependent on legacy pipelines from the former Soviet Union (today Russian Federation). Production of significant quantities of natural gas or petroleum from shale or tight (low permeability) reservoirs is in large part dependent on the social acceptance and technical and commercial viability of hydraulic fracturing. As of 2013 only 3% of the Poles opposed fracking.[ Leasing for shale plays in Poland began in 2007. But, as of 2013, the results of exploration efforts, as well as government regulation, have been disappointing, and estimates of the size of the total resource have been substantially reduced.
Canadian geologist J. David Hughes of the Post Carbon Institute in Santa Rosa, California, argued that shale gas wells are notoriously short-lived, declining in gas production by as much as 85 percent in their first year—twice as fast as conventional wells. Because of the unyielding nature of the dense source rock, Hughes noted, shale gas wells routinely have to be refractured, and in the future shale deposits will have to be drilled and fractured in increasing numbers simply to maintain current production levels.
The relative inaccessibility and density of the shale formations make it hard to produce shale gas. Industry officials, on the other hand, tend to cite larger resource statistics, pointing out that improvements in technology make more gas reserves recoverable over time. Industry critics, meanwhile, note that shale developers have an interest in exaggerating reserve claims in order to increase the value of their companies in the eyes of investors.
It could be that
Poland as largest country of Central-Europe will try to strengthen and expand the Visegrad Group, the cultural and political alliance of four Central European states – Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland and Slovakia-. It could be that
Poland and the three other members will try to engage the Baltic States, Austria,
Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia into the group. In that case a European Union with different speeds and sub-unions will emerge. A core of North-West-European countries in the North-West, a group of Southern-European nations and the Central- and South-Eastern-European nations.
The aim of the Visegrad Group is to further their European integration, as well as for advancing military, economic and energy cooperation with one another. All four members of the Visegrád Group joined the European Union on 1 May 2004.
I am curious for the results of the upcoming G-20 Hamburg meeting in July. It will be a difficult meeting due to the Brexit, US-EU disagreements on the environment (reducing Co2), Russian-Western tensions, the very vulnerable situation in the Middle east and North-Africa right now (Syria, Qatar, Iran, Libiya and the instabile Sinai Peninsula in Egypt). Continental Europe is very divided between the North-Western fiscal responsible, pragmatic and balanced rule, the South-European spending economies and unstable political situations (in Spain, Portugal and Italy), the vulnerable situation and tensions in Greece, Serbia/Kosovo, Macedonia and Turkey, and the continued danger of Islamist and extreme right terrorism in Europe. (After the terrorist attacks in France, Belgium, Germany, Austria, Denmark and most recently in Great-Britain). What can the political leaders do to increase safety, security, stability and prosperity in their nations?
John,
The U.S. President Donald Trump will visit a Central-European nation with another kind of rightwing populism than his own American brand of Capitalist, Neo-liberal Populist conservatism. The Polish rightwing PiS government has strong socialist policies in it's economical approach of the Polish economy. It is less free market oriented than the previous PO-PSL governments. Social security, increasing state control, a diminishing
Trias Politica (
Seperation of Powers), less press freedom and a government that wants to control the Polish society. There are similarities between present day Poland and the USA, but also significant differences.
Again, the Polish bid to carve out influence outside the European Union with which the nationalist government has repeatedly clashed is perfectly understandable from the PiS perspective. The Polish government loathes the European president
Donald Tusk, dislikes the EU bureaucracy and influence of Brussels. The Polish government has a better understanding with the Hungarian leadership and can get along with other Central- and Eastern-European nations, accept Russia ofcourse. (Eric is right about Poland's and the Polish allergia for Russia, for various reasons. I understand both Eric's pro-Russian frustration about that and the Polish distrust, fear and aversion towards Russia, due to the past Czarist Russian and Sovjet occupations of Poland, and the long Sovjet Russian dominance in Eastern- and Central-Europe from 1944 until 1989). Poland wants to weaken the powers of Brussel, will try to prevent a Berlin-Paris axis in Europe, and will work on the best possible bilateral and multilateral ties with individual European nations and all EU nations. The EU will continue to be important to Poland due to the huge inner European market and due to the European structural funds
Poland profited from and probably will continue to profit from.
I wonder if Trump will succeed in promoting U.S. natural gas exports to the leaders from central and eastern Europe.
Poland for sure wants to get rid of it's heavy reliance on Russian supplies. That
Poland received its first shipment of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) this month is an example of that.
Poland's push towards "self-ghettoisation" is taking place for the last three years now. I wonder where the present Beata Szydłogo cabinet will lead
Poland in the next couple of years. Poland is somewhere inbetween the USA, the UK Brexit, the Russian Federation, Hungary, Turkey under Erdogan and Israel under Netanyahu.
Break up European unity, with the Three Seas project could be beneficial to
Poland on the short term, but I don't know how it will work out on the long term. Poland could work on a Eastern-European Union of Central- and Eastern-European nations.
Poland's ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party for sure has played a major role in fueling a deepening rift between ex-communist and Western members of the European Union, at a time when the bloc is struggling with the aftermath of Britain's decision to leave.
Since winning a parliamentary election in 2015, the PiS brought relations with Germany to their worst in nearly a decade, and is facing EU action over what critics call its authoritarian tilt. This is not new and hardly surprising at all for people with knowledge of European politics. Just look back at 2005.
The PiS won a plurality of votes in elections held in 2005 and formed a governing coalition with the Self-Defense Party and the League of Polish Families.
The leadership styles of Jarosław Kaczyński and Lech Kaczyński were unorthodox. Strongly nationalistic, they often took an aggressive approach to foreign policy—including hostility toward the policies of the European Union (EU)—and they sharply criticized
Poland’s historical enemies, Germany and Russia. Devout Roman Catholics and staunch social conservatives, they adopted a hard line against the widespread corruption present in Polish politics. While advocating a stronger central government and a more comprehensive economic safety net, the Kaczyńskis also endorsed populist objectives such as cutting taxes. Their critics, however, saw their nationalism as excessive. The populist elements in their views; although they advocated a strong central government, they also promoted both tax cuts and a strong economic safety net. On social issues they were deeply conservative, strictly following the doctrines of the Roman Catholic Church.
Despite holding vastly similar political viewpoints, the two were markedly different in their governing style. Lech was a more divisive, vituperative character, capable of drawing intense criticism with his candid statements. Jarosław was considered more reserved and shrewdly diplomatic.
Poland together with Hungary (the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán) is one of the leading voices in the region against migration.
Poland shares Trump's disregard for climate change and suspicion of international bodies. In that perspective
Poland lacks the Western-European environmental awareness and development and progress of decades. Since the 1970s, in Western-Europe, the USA and Canada, public awareness, environmental sciences, ecology, and technology have advanced to include modern focus points like ozone depletion, global climate change, acid rain, and the potential of genetically modified organisms (GMOs).
In Germany for instance in the 1970s, environmentalists and peace activists politically organised amongst thousands of action groups. The political party The Greens (German: Die Grünen) was founded January 13, 1980 in Karlsruhe to give this movement political and parliamentary representation. Opposition to pollution, use of nuclear power, NATO military action, and certain aspects of industrialised society were principal campaign issues. The Greens originated from civil initiatives, new social movements of the protests of 1968, but also from the conservative spectrum. In Poland communism stood in the way of environmentalism, and dissidents needed their energy to fight for freedom, democracy and thus a pluriform political spectrum and society.
"A MADNESS OF ELITES"Poland's aversion towards Brussels and the EU clearly has a domestic element, the historic rivaly between Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Donald Tusk. Next to that the present Polish government will oppose some of the liberal European legislation and more liberal European commissioners.
The statement that vital Polish national interests had been ignored by a Brussels machine dominated by "German diktat" is clearly nonsense. Germany was one of the large advocates of
Poland entering the EU and NATO. Germany has financial, economical, social-cultural and political interests in
Poland, because it is the largest country in Central-Europe outside Germany (if you can call Germany a Central-European nation?), due to German car factories in
Poland, German banks and business in
Poland and the German minority in Poland. Germany has no interest in harming the interests of it's neighbours, because the German economy is interwoven with the European economy and thus the European project. Ofcourse like other West-European nations Germany looks critical at Polish the Polish democracy and has a problem with Poland's migration policies. Germany received refugees (quota) and
Poland refused them.
I believe that
Poland might fear to close ties between the Trump administration and the Putin administration. I am not sure if Trump will reconfirm his commitment to the alliance's military build-up in eastern Europe? A deterrence policy against Russia will endanger his plan of a united front of the West and Russia against ISIS (Islamic State/Daesh) and other Islamist terrorism. And maybe Trump will try to restore the American-Russian diplomatic ties, trade relations and political ties that were developed since Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin and the old fox Putin, by George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
The United States military presence in
Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania nerves the Russians. The US is the largest military power in the world and has very advanced military technology, artillery, tanks and cyber warfare. The presence of that military machine in the Russian border zone scares the Russians as much as the Russian presence in Ukraine, Crimea, and near the Baltic states and Kaliningrad (inbetween Poland and Lithuania) scares the Poles.
NATO AND TRUMP
Ofcourse Trump will repeat his mantra that Western-European nations spend to little on their defense. European leaders are irritated about that because for a large segment of their electorate high defense spending is not on their priority list. But Trump has a point if he says that the USA spends more on defense and therefore carries the NATO. The German and Dutch armies are in a terrible state. Cutbacks in the last decade have diminshed our armies and in Germany even a large amount of the Bundeswehr equipment dousn't work. Tanks, armoured vehicles, planes, fighters and etc. That's worrysome so Trump has a point there.
I hope that Trump takes the worries of the Baltic states and Poland serious about the danger of a large military presence of Russia in the region. But in the same time for all parties new diplomatic efforts and trying to restore relations with Russia is in the interest of all. The huge Russian innermarket is important for Polish farmers, entrepreneurs, business people and Polish industries (the Polish export sector).
"GET OUT AND TRAVEL"
I agree with the European official who urged Mr Trump to get out and travel as much as he can. He needs to understand Europe and he can do that by getting out and speaking to people, to European leaders.