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Post by kaima on Apr 3, 2020 10:06:40 GMT -7
What is our new world going to be like when this Corona Virus attack is behind us, or settled down to a level where we can restore society to a new, functioning routine?  I don't expect empty parking lots in our future, but the photo well represents the current situation as we try to handle the situation. We have restrictions in travel, restrictions for social distancing (6 feet in US, 1.5 meters in EU, I understand), closures of social venues, concerts, clubs, meetings, etc, and churches, which in the US bumps up against the idea of Freedom of Religion, no matter what. For a few rare cases that seems to mean meeting and greeting in person, no matter what the health risk to parishioners or the public. So far the rules of Caesar have handled the rogue preacher and parish with gentle hands, and social disapproval seems to be sufficient to shame the offenders to social norms. No matter what the economic situation, we always have finances for war, so it is good that Trump declared this a war. There is no other social institution that gathers such wholesale support and financing as war. Whereas we have massive standing armies and even more massive weapons systems, we fail to have anything comparable at hand to confront a virus as the one that faces us today. Will we dedicate 5% as much money to medical preparedness in the future, as we dedicate to armies today? That is hard to imagine in the US of today, as the right wing is already ranting about the "push to socialism in the name of fighting the virus". It is easier to imagine in Europe, where some degree of socialism is accepted and responsible support of society is more the norm. Call it active Christian Charity, exercised by the Will of the People, through their delegated Government. That seems to be a principle we in the US have forgotten, that We are the Government, and the Government does what we wish, and they do it as our needs and wishes change with time. The deaths anticipated may not reach the proportion that they did centuries ago during the Black Plague, but the economic damages seem that they will be as consequential, changing our economic structure in ways not yet foreseen. A return to the previous 'norm' seems to be a fragile dream at this time, with the daily activities and frivolities we have learned to enjoy so much. I wonder where the world will be in 18 months, and in 5 years. What new structures (social, economic, and otherwise) will we have in place, how will the new economy function? With an excess of refugees underway before this virus crisis hit, what will be the refugee flood afterwards? In the USA, with the excessive debt we have built up over the last 3 generations, what will be the outcome of the added debt due to the shutdowns and eventual attempts at restoring our & the world economy? Will our governments survive, will dictators seize power, as seems to be in process in Hungary at the moment? I look forward to commentary, opinions and ideas. Kai  |
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Post by pieter on Apr 3, 2020 13:02:27 GMT -7
Kai,
I am exhausted from my tv work. But will react later. Great subject, great topic.
Cheers,
Pieter
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Post by karl on Apr 3, 2020 13:28:24 GMT -7
Kai
A very realist approach of the here and now that may or may not dictate the future for quite often time is not sequential but adjust as the situation dictates.
What is with this virus effect and result though, is an indication of the effectiveness of biological war fare. With this is quite certain our enemies have given this great attention as they would. The problem though as with out doubt, our same enemies have also noticed, that biological war fare will not differentiate between friend or foe and treats each in the same manner. What would stand out as different is who would have control of the effective vaccine if there would be one?
Karl
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Post by Jaga on Apr 4, 2020 22:42:25 GMT -7
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Post by pieter on Apr 5, 2020 7:40:55 GMT -7
Kai,
Your question is very interesting. I think it is hard to predict our future, because there are a lot of factors that play a role. The Geopolitical situation, the health care situation in various countries and regions of the world, how the financial markets and the global economy will be in the long term, and what the new power balance will be in the world between the Global world powers. I believe and see the incredible power and resilience of people inside my own country, the Netherlands, and in many other nations in the world. We live in isolated positions and today we see borders closed, Airports that look like parking lots for planes and we see national, regional and local systems in place. I just watched with fascination the incredible quality program Buitenhof ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buitenhof_(TV_series) ) with very interesting guest and really deep and to the point interviews about the present difficult situation in the Netherlands, Europe and the world.
In Buitenhof this sunday: PvdA (Labour) party leader Lodewijk Asscher on vulnerability and inequality through measures regarding the corona crisis. What does the corona crisis mean for world politics? A conversation with journalist and writer Geert Mak. MSF (Doctors Without Borders, is an international humanitarian medical non-governmental organisation (NGO)) general director Nelke Manders on the role of her MSF during the corona crisis. And the news photo with photographer David van Dam. This next to other Dutch and foreign media of course, like as usual.
I thought about it before, and now during and after this Global pandemic I do believe there will come an end to the Pax Americana2, the 21 century version of relative peace in the Western Hemisphere and later the world beginning around the middle of the 20th century, thought to be caused by the preponderance of power enjoyed by the United States. If you believe that military power isn't the most important thing in the world than you will realise that the Pax Americana is over, because the USA is becoming increasingly an isolated island in Northern America. Today you see that that military power is defenceless against the corona virus COVID-19, today you see that that military superpower can't avoid or stop cyber attacks and physical human terrorist attacks.
In the USA between 2008 and 2016 there were 115 Far right inspired terror incidents. 35% of these were foiled (meaning no attack happened) and 29% resulted in fatalities. These terror incidents caused 79 deaths. In the same persiod there were 63 Islamist inspired terror incidents. 76% of these were foiled (meaning no attack happened) and 13% resulted in fatalities. These terror incidents caused 90 deaths. Again in the same period there were 19 reported incidents inspired by left-wing ideologies (and eco-terrorism). 20% of these were foiled (meaning no attack happened) and 10% resulted in fatalities. These terror incidents caused 7 deaths. We don't know how much damage and health problems and deaths the environmental situation, smog and thus Particulates cause in the USA?
The corona virus COVID-19 crisis will disappear some day, maybe in a few months, maybe in half a year, maybe in a year. We will see in time who will survive and who will not. I wonder if COVID-19 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will act like a sleeping cell, or someone who has been in a narcose or coma for a while and will re-emerge in a new form, new mutated version, for instance COVID-20 or COVID-21, I don't know. I hope that we as humanity have waken up and invest a lot in our health care industries, in medication, medical research, medical hygiene products, and in our health care systems. I am for empathic reasons extremely worried for people who have no health insurance, who have no job due to the present crisis and who are in very bad health situations right now and in parts of our world today are dying due to lack of food, clean water, hygienic toilets, soap and cleaning products. We are only in the beginning of this health crisis and we are all in it together. Doctors Without Borders general director Nelke Manders is very right when she stated in Buitenhof that it is a huge problem that in a lot of Third World countries and in some European nations there is a lack of hygiene, clean water, respiratory Material, and that the isolationalist thinking in the West is wrong. The virus is global and we have to fight COVID-19 at home and abroad in the same time. Nelke Manders has huge worries, because she can't get her Doctors Without Borders doctors, nurses, medical specialists abroad where they are needed. She is negotiating with the KLM (Royal Dutch Airlines) Pieter Elbers (President & CEO KLM), but he said that all planes are on the ground and can't fly. I really hope for Nelke Manders that maybe the Royal Netherlands Air Force can help her or maybe some very rich business people with private yets, if they are allowed to fly at all.
MSF Holland, General Director, Nelke Manders, addressing media during her visit to South Sudan @eye Radio/April 2019
Nelke Manders said that it is a huge problem that some dictators in Africa and other Third World countries in for instance Asia or the Middle east, copy Western Lock downs. That means a death from hunger, thirst, diseases and Corona for maybe thousands of people, and maybe hundreds of thousands of people or more. This is extremely dangerous and scary. In this Post Pax Americana world we see the growing power of China, and it is a question in what direction Europe will move. Europe must grow up in my opinion and realise that it is a global financial-economical, political (diplomatic), military and health care power. There are a few options for Europe. In the worst scenario Europe will be split in 2 Unions, A Northern Alliance (EU North) and a Southern Alliance (EU South), another option is that there will be a core EU again of fewer countries in which the strong European nations unite without the weaker countries (So let's say an EU of Germany, France, the Benelux countries, Italy and Austria without the rest). Yet another option would be a total regionalisation of Europe with a Central/Eastern European Union centered around Poland and Hungary (the Visegrád Group, Visegrád Four, or V4), a regional Union of Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Romania and the Baltic states, a sort of EU centre or EU East, next to for instance a West-European Union of Germany, the Benelux and France and that Southern European Union. Never forget about old historical ties, old alliances, old trade lines, old financial-economical ties, old cultural ties within the EU merged with new circumstances and new developments.
My own hope is that people stay sensible, reasonable, pragmatic, rational and base themselves on reason. Right now the European Union is very important for Europe. Only together we will survive. The European economies, infrastructures, monetary systems, security systems, police forces, armies and airports are connected with each other in short distances. We live, work, study, trade, research, do business, sport, mary with each other in our countries. Many European families are bi-cultural or intercultural. 3 of my friends have Dutch fathers and German mothers and thus Dutch and German families. These people are of my inner core of best friends and they merge in their selves the best elements of the Dutch and German peoples. Other people I know in Arnhem have Dutch fathers and French, Spanish and Romanian mothers. The same counts for them, they merge the best elements of their Dutch and French, Spanish and Romanian heritage. Next to them I know Belgian, Polish, Ukrainian, Turkish, Kurd, Moroccan, Afghan and Briitish people who all participate in the Arnhem and Dutch society. We are all in it together.
America (the USA) has huge problems of it self today. The USA will become more isolationalist and self dependend. It is a huge nation with a lot of natural resources, which in fact could produce everything on it's own. It still has good ties with Canada, some Southern American and Some European countries. In this world it is important for the USA that it keeps it's own Western alliance in tact. The American connection for instance with the United Kingdom (Great Britain), Ireland, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The USA should also have good ties with South Africa. Why? Because since the Apartheid era and still today, South Africa has a very good health care system, very good medics, very good specialists and medical research. One of the few good things about South Africa today (next to the corrupt government, politicians, poverty, crime rates, unsafety and HIV/Aids problem and sexual violence in that country). What is the core of your civilization. An English speaking, democratic and capitalist society. What other nations are democratic, capitalist and English speaking. An easy math calculation. It is not racist, because the Chinese also have connections with all the Chinese speaking countries and regions (Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia and etc.), the Turks with Turkic nations and Germany with Austria and Switzerland.
That is only part of logical thinking. The rest is that we are all in this together and that we should realise that viruses and other problems cross borders and we can't stop them if we do not find solutions for them. China is busy settling itself in Africa, certain European countries and the Middle East (Syria, where it supports the Assad Regime, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. In Iran no doubt China will have some influence next to Russia). The Chinese government has embarked on a highly publicized campaign to provide vital medical supplies to European countries as they fight coronavirus outbreaks within their borders. In Europe in Italy, the Czech Republic, Serbia, Hungary, Greece, Spain and Portugal are rather Pro-Chinese nations.
Over the past decade, China has become central to the world economy. Building on its economic successes, it is becoming increasingly central in world politics. China is also now more ambitious, aiming to establish itself as a regional as well as a global power. China’s rise has been driven by economic development, starting with the launch almost exactly forty years ago of Deng Xiaoping’s Open Door policy, which made China the economic powerhouse it is today―not just domestically, but in most parts of the world.
On the world stage, China has become a strong player in such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank. It has developed strong bilateral relations with most countries around the world, with the exception of a handful of nations that still recognize Taiwan diplomatically. Globally, Chinese diplomats have been incredibly active, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) receiving a 15 percent budget increase in 2018 to help project Chinese diplomacy and soft power throughout the world.
On April 10, 2019, the EU finalized an investment screening mechanism that marked a major step forward in forging a more coherent, common EU approach toward detecting and raising awareness around foreign direct investment (FDI) from China in critical assets, technologies, and infrastructure. Under the new rules, foreign investments in several critical sectors—such as energy, ports and airports, communications, data, space, and financial industries—will be scrutinized. This was a major breakthrough for the EU after a number of free-market countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, the Baltics, and Scandinavia, decided to support the initiative.
Beijing’s intimidating language and threat of retaliation against European countries considering rejecting Huawei is a point of concern in Februari 2020.
In 2009, then-Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao called Spain “the best friend of China in Europe.” Spain was the first EU country to have a foreign minister visit Beijing after the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and later sought to lift the EU arms embargo against China. In the midst of the 2008-2010 financial and economic crisis, which impacted Spain particularly hard, China purchased significant amounts of Spanish debt (about 12 percent of the debt in foreign hands in those years) and became its second-largest international creditor. So far, Spanish policy toward China has been politically bipartisan.
Chinese investments on both sides of the Atlantic have declined considerably after peaking in 2016. Beijing is increasingly curbing private outward investment to maintain its stock of foreign reserves and to direct capital to domestic use amid a period of economic slowdown. The notable exceptions are foreign direct investments (FDI) connected with President Xi Jinping’s flagship strategy to achieve technological parity in key industries, Made in China 2025, and investment towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Xi’s other grand plan to connect China to its markets through large-scale infrastructure projects.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative puts Hungary, the first European country to participate in the plan, at the center of the Eurasian world. Geographically, this award might be given to Turkmenistan, but politically and economically, China has made it clear that Viktor Orbán’s Hungary will hold this position.
Investments in the European Union from China reached a record high of 35 billion euros in 2016, a 50-fold increase on the 700 million euros in 2008, according to Rhodium Group statistics.
Outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) from China dramatically swung towards Europe in the first half of 2018 while dropping its FDI in North America by a massive 92 per cent in 2018 from $24 billion to $2 billion, according to Baker Mackenzie.
I am a Transatlanticist for most part of my adult life and it is hard for me to see the Transatlantic alliance under such stress and realising that it might fall down or become a lame Duck. I therefor hope that in Europe European leaders, European influencers, European spin doctors, European top diplomats, European and National lobbyists, European presidents, kings and queens, European prime ministers, chancelors, European ministers of foreign affairs, European ministers of finance, European ministers of Economical affairs, the European parliamentarians (politicians), the European political parties (National, regional, local, European), European CEO's of European multi-nationals, European business people, European Employers organisation leaders ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VNO-NCW ), Trade Unions ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nederlands_Verbond_van_Vakverenigingen / en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christelijk_Nationaal_Vakverbond ) and individual billionaires with influence and a public role (the European versions of Bill Gates) will take their responsibility and will plead for maintaining our democratic, economical, financial, monetary, trade, health care and social security structures that worked and in the same time will work on strengthening the Union and European democracy (the position of the European Parliament).
Ron (Kai), in the Netherlands (Europe) we have the same restrictions in travel, restrictions for social distancing (6 feet in US, 1.5 meters in EU, you are right about that), closures of social venues, concerts, clubs, meetings, etc, and churches, which in the EU bumps up against the idea of Freedom of Religion, Freedom of movement, Freedom of gathering and organisation, no matter what. We are in the same boat all over the world right now. This extremely dangerous virus limits all of our freedom and social lives. Social control and anger of anti-social behaviour (high risk gathering, not social distancing themselves from others by some irresponsible people) exists over her in Europe also. Read my comment about the Rotterdam people in my comment in the Duch section. We have to put our differences apart and try to build, safe distance and online communication chanals between people.
Not only Trump declared this a war, also prime minister Mark Rutte in his own words, president Macron of France and Angela Merkel called this a war. Maybe sometimes in other words, but the message is the same.Kai, we will come different out of this health crisis than before we entered this. Billions of people have a lot of time to think about their life, about the meaning of life in general, to think about our systems, our economical systems, our health care systems, our health insurance, our medical industries, our political systems, the old polarised system. Fact is that this virus doesn't care about the fact if you are Republican, Democratic or Independent. It doesn't care if you are a Roman Catholic Christian, Protestant christian, Orthodox christian, Jew, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, Paganist, heathen, Bahai, a Zoroastrian, Atheist, Buddhist or New Age person. I hope that a lot of people realise that and that they are forced to think about their lives, their way of living, the job they do and the way they have lived their lives before this corona crisis.
The economic damages will change our economic structure in ways not yet foreseen. You are right Kai. The Dutch Prime minister warned that the Netherlands after COVID-19 will not be the same Netherlands than before COVID-19 in Januari 2020, when everybody was still optimistic about the new year. Thousands of small and middle big businesses will go bankrupt, recession might come and many people will have to deal with temporary unemployment or long term unemployment or other jobs in maybe a lower level than they were used to. Small businesses and middle small business who had build a small reserve after the subprime mortgage crisis, lost that buffer again. They can't finance their businesses, even though they got some support from the government.
In the meanwhile we have to survive together. Be disciplimed and focussed, think about our elderly and ill, take care of our own food supplies, hygienic materials, social distancing ourselves from neighbours, colleageus and strangers. We have to stay fit mentally and physically, by doing exercises in our homes, balconies, gardens (if possible), and try to keep connecting to others. To keep going on in a different way.
Kai I am worried about the refugees in the camps in Lesbos, in Turkey, in other European refugee camps and refugees stuck in mountain regions, in Libya, in Egypt and in refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon and inside Syria. Vulnerable children, elderly, mothers and ill teenagers and young adults will have zero chances. Few people care about them, because they are aliens, non-Wesrtern, Muslims, colored people or black people. Not our people. Rightwing Populists and Neo-Nazi's dreamed about this situation. A Dutch Neo-Nazi leader said that this had been done years ago in 2015.
Kai I hope that dictators will not take power and if they do that peoples revolts will put them down again. We have to stand for our Freedom & Democracy, our systems and our way of life.
Cheers,
Pieter
Sources:
carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/15/china-s-rise-as-geoeconomic-influencer-four-european-case-studies-pub-77462
visegradinsight.eu/beijings-growing-influence-in-europe/
thediplomat.com/2019/04/how-hungarys-path-leads-to-chinas-belt-and-road/
carnegieendowment.org/2019/05/09/on-china-s-expanding-influence-in-europe-and-eurasia-pub-79094
www.csis.org/analysis/spain-and-china-european-approach-asymmetric-relationship
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Post by pieter on Apr 5, 2020 13:31:11 GMT -7
Kai,
I went into the old reflexes of trying to reply to your text taking it literary without thinking out of the box or being more creative or using my own mind and ideas. The world has 7 billion people and incredible powerful financial markets, multinationals, ICT sectors, billionaires, and a few very powerful dominant leaders. Xi Jinping of China, President Ram Nath Kovind and prime minister Narendra Modi (both of the Rightwing Populist and Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party) from India, the president of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro, the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin (who will become prime minister again), the president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, prime minister of Hungary Viktor Mihály Orbán, president Donald Trump of the USA, the president of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the king of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the Supreme Leader of Iran Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei and the president of Iran Hassan Rouhani and the prime minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu are the dominant political leaders in the present day macho world, in which I see reflexes of the late 19th and early 21th century. In that context Kai, Czarist Russia is the Russian Federation, Japan is China today, the USA is the British colonial Empire and Turkey is the Ottoman Empire.
Where will the world will be in 18 months, and in 5 years? If the corona crisis lasts too long we will go back to the twenties and thirties of the 20th century. We will have Black Tuesday (Oct. 29, 1929) scenario's, also called the Wall Street Crash of 1929. If the economical lock down will last for too long, a huge Global recession will lead to an increased government, World Bank, IMF, Federal, National and EU power. Like my last post, I want to state that the world could go in different directions. That directions will also be dependent on health, safety/security, Corona virus development, Financial, Economical, Social, cultural, diplomatic, Central bank measures (Federal reserve interest policies), government strategies, and the state of Global alliances (NATO, China-Russia alliance, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation [OIC] and the Arab League and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC]).
Will there be elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2020 in the USA and will be Donald Trump president again or will he be replaced by a Democratic president? The development, increase or decrease of Corona virus patients and deaths in the Red states will have an effect on that. If the financial markets, investors, share holders and entrepreneurs do not have confidence in the US economy and the world economy than there will be a very deep recession, together with an inflation and huge state depths. This might lead to new Keynesian economical policies.
Since there is no guarantee that the goods that individuals produce will be met with adequate effective demand, and periods of high unemployment can be expected, especially when the economy is contracting in size. The economy will be unable to maintain itself at full employment automatically, and believe that it is necessary for the government to step in and put purchase power into the hands of the working population through government spending. Keynesianism is considered a “demand-side” theory that focuses on short-run economic fluctuations.
Deliberate government action could foster full employment. The government can directly influence the demand for goods and services by altering tax policies and public expenditures.
The Keynesian model of effective demand consists essentially of three spending streams: consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, and government expenditures, each of which is independently determined. (Foreign trade is ignored.) In a 21th century model, there must be an alternative New Keynesian model in which the trade is included and there must be a model of international trade and global economy in staid of the old Keynesian model. There is nearly no total isolationist and "closed economy" (Autarky) in the world today. Even North Korea is not total Autarkic.
If there will be a 21th century New Deal and if that will be a Green New Deal depends on the further containment of the Corona virus (COVID-19), how far the small businesses and middle big business will be hurt and what affect that will have in the long term on the large businesses. As a local journalist I see the drama unfolding for people with restaurants, hotels, lunch rooms, bakeries, café's (pubs/bars), cafeteria's (Snack bars), fashion stores, barber stations, taxi's (cabs), photo businesses, shoe stores, small grocery stores, butchers, hair dressers, free lancers, employees of commercial and state run firms, neighbourhood stores and etc. A huge drama and stressful situation for these people next to the fear for the Corona virus (COVID-19). People who are locked down in their homes, tensions within families. I already heard rumours about domestic violence and aggression due to the fact that families aren't used to be so long together in a small space. Fathers and mothers have to combine family life and children with work at home, which is difficult for them. But thank god still there are no shortages of food, toilet paper and hygienic products, Respiratory Material , soap and certainly not water. But that might change also in the near future.
Another model in contrast with Keynesianism would be radical capitalism in the libertarian and objectivist sense. Less government and more market, less taxes on income, less taxes on labour, less taxes on property (Real estate taxes), less taxes on products (excise taxes), less tariffs (taxes on imports or exports between sovereign states). In such a model with a very small government and less government control, the economy could grow fast and demand and supply would arrange itself in a Laissez Faire manner. This would mean an expansion of the Neo-liberal world order and a continuation of Reaganomics, a supply-side economics, trickle-down economics, with a reduction of the growth of government spending, a reduction of the federal income tax and capital gains tax, and a reduction of the government regulation, and tighten the money supply in order to reduce inflation. Reaganomics in this libertarian capitalist economy would be combined with Thatcherism, meaning, low inflation, the small state and free markets through tight control of the money supply, privatisation and constraints on the labour movement.
Thatcherite ideals as "free markets, financial discipline, firm control over public expenditure, tax cuts, nationalism, 'Victorian values' (of the Samuel Smiles self-help variety), privatisation and a dash of populism" would fit such a classical liberal system, and that would change the present day Trumpist Populism with it's larger Rightwing Populist state influence. 'Real conservatives' hate the Trumpist economy and criticize Trump for it. They want free trade, are focussed on import & export with the world and hate Trumps isolationist policies which endangers their business interests abroad in Europe, China and other Asian countries.
A third economical model would be slightly autarkic and Green and that is an economy based on self-sufficient local and regional economies with local/regional produced products, local/regional traded and sold products. This model is very popular in the Benelux, certain German city states like Hanburg, Bremen and Berlin and in Scandinavian countries. Environmental friendly ways of production, eco-farming, Fair trade initiatives, less pollutive ways of transport (little electric trucks), carrier cycles (delivery bicycle's, Bakfiets in Dutch, Triporteur in French, Lieferdreirad in German, Ladcykel in Danish) and eco supermakets and green buyers. Today the clients are often Veganists and vegetarian, but also people who want to buy eco meat, because they are critical about the polluting meat industries and the bad treatment of animals there. The same people today often point at the fact that the Corona virus (COVID-19) crisis today is a result of that bad treatment of animals.
Dutch carrier cycles called bakfietsen in Dutch om the North Eastern city of Groningen
Electric waste collecting bike in the city of Delft in the Netherlands
DHL eco transport bike in Spain
City agriculture in Arnhem of the local initiative the Green Fox (Groene vos)
The shop of the Groene Vos (Green Fox) in Arnhem
City agriculture in Arnhem, Province of Gelderland, Middle East of the Netherlands
We have 2 eco supermarkets in Arnhem where they sell local produced or green transported products. The products in these supermarkets are more expensive than in normal supermarkets, because they sell organic (green) produced eco products and Fair trade is important for them too. So these products are more expensive, but often have a greater quality and better taste and better feel than products in normal supermarkets. The personel is eco educated and sometimes are real academic intellectuals amost, because they have an idealistic motive next to a financial, economical and corporate motive. They know exactly what products they sell, and they are very good explainers and advisors. It is fun and interesting and good to go there. But sometimes their products are to expensive for me. I work for a local Radio & TV station and haven't got the income a national journalist has. But I do not complain, so buy some products in these Green eco supermarkets and other products in the 'normal' supermakets Albert Hein, Spar, Jumbo, Coop and Lidl in Arnhem.
Eco supermarket Ekoplaza in Arnhem
The interior of the Odon supermarket, the other eco supermarket in Arnhem
I saw a documentary about pro-active constructive communities in Detroit (watch the video below about Detroit) who were busy with city agriculture in empty city land, where before were ruins of abandoned homes and buildings and industries. In larger cities green roofs, green city gardens and new city parks in unusual places like an abandoned old Subway track above the ground show signs of these new forms of community life, green cities and maybe new local/regional societies linked to these new local/regional economies. More and more people are aware that you can be a conscious buyer and buy fair trade and eco (green) local/regional products. So maybe that neighbourhood, borough and city economies and thus local markets also exist in the USA? In Arnhem part of that local/regional economy is recycling. They collect some useful old waste, or used products and use it like used coffee-percolator, fruit and vegetable waste, old left over bread and etc, etc. This is a growing local/regional industry. Children, teenagers, parents, grandparents, uncles and aunts, cousins, neighbours, friends, acquaintances, colleagues at work, people of the gym of people, people of their church community, people of their hobby club, people of their sport foundations participate in that and so neighbourhood companies emerged and people found work in this local/regional economies. Also in connection and direct contact with Eco farmers in the perifery of the city in villages and hamlets around Arnhem, who took over traditional farms and started doing old fashionate farming without polluting pesticides, without polluting artificial manure and without draining (exhausting) the soil with over production on one spot. This local/regional economy is growing next to the traditional polluting farming which causes so much emission output (methane and nitrous oxide), acidification of the air and soil (ammonia), fertilization of soil, surface water and groundwater (nitrogen and phosphate), desiccation (lowering groundwater level) and dispersion (heavy metals and plant protection products).
Maybe Kai (Ron) in the post Corona virus (COVID-19) crisis world we will see more people that are aware of the bad shape of the American and world health situation, the American and world environmental situation, the lack of equality in the world, the fact that we have invested to less in our health care systems. Linked to these facts you have the reality that the Military Industrial Complex, NRA, the Aviation Industry, the Airlines, the tourist industry, large hotel chains, the multi-nationals, Mc Donalds and Burger King and Kentucky Fried Chicken and Pizza Hut (with their unhealthy crapy food), the Billionaires, the Financial markets, the speculative hedge funds, the Real Estate moguls, the CEO's, the investment Bankers, the insurance companies, politicians linked to corporate money and interests and the pharmaceutical industry created the imbalance, the inequality, and this oligarchic, plutocratic (partly Kleptocratic), Minoritarianist, Nepotist, Democrature (a thin line between Democracy and dictatorship situation), Netocratic (a perceived global upper-class that bases its power on a technological advantage and networking skills), Oligopolistic (a market form wherein a market or industry is dominated by a stop of large sellers (oligopolists)), and Inverted totalitarian (a managed democracy or illiberal democracy) system, society and 21th century democracy, where influencers, corporate money, lobbyists, spin doctors, Public relations and communication firms, career politicians and party machines rule nations, international institutions and alliances like the EU, NATO and the United Nations.
Cheers,
PieterP.S. - I am guilty of eating a Big Tasty🍔, Big Mac🍔, Quarter Pounder 🍔 meal, McDonalds hamburgers 🍔 and cheeseburgers 🍔 and Whopper burgers and a large Chicago Whopper burger every now and then. I confess I love Coca Cola, my ApplePC at home, my Windows edit PC with Adobe Premiere Pro Creative Suit 2018 software. I love some Hollywood movies and some NewYork School of cinema movies and American Art House Movies (Jim Jarmush, Gus Van Sant, Terrence Malick, David Lynch, Spike Lee, The Coen brothers, Paul Thomas Anderson and Richard Linklater) and I am simply fond of the USA and love parts of it, but have to say that I have only seen the West Coast (LA) and East Coast (New York) properly. The Big Apple and LA are of course the most exiting places for a cultural European who studied history. I have to say though that I have to explore a lot from Europe myself still. I have never been to mainland Spain and Portugal. I have never been to Greece, never to Croatia 🇭🇷 (where my parents met in Dubrovnik in 1966), Bosnia-Herzegovina (the lovely city of Sarajevo), Serbia (Belgrade), never to Slovenia, nor to Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, never tonMalta, Cyprus, nor Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Greenland, the beautiful green Faroe Islands, never have been to Ireland and Scotland, and never have been to the Baltic States (my Polish grandfather was born in Tallinn, the Capital of Estonia 🇪🇪). Lithuania 🇱🇹 would be interesting due to the shared history of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Vilnius would be interesting for me, because the Polish heritage of that city when it was Wilno before the Second World War.
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Post by karl on Apr 5, 2020 16:11:06 GMT -7
Kai and Pieter
Interesting of such a complex question dealing with a very simply cause and effect. The simple is one virus and effect, is complexity of such vast numbers of sick and dead across the borders of our respective states. For this is a new virus not before known and as so, no vaccine nor never before encountered.
The question of: what will be Post Virus World? Logic? It will what is logically to be, for the first is to pick up the pieces and put them back together once again. This will entail the restart of industry to begin producing the goods and services required by consumers of our respective states. In conjunction with producing is restart of transport and distribution of products to each respective market. For this situation has created a readjustment in the manner of all things of our respective manner of living.
Whilst as above, will be the requirement of open borders for road transport to create and maintain the supply train of goods to fill the needs of requirement, includant of Poland which has created a very wide bottle neck in blocked borders. For transports to the Eastern states must first go through Poland and as in short past and present this has been very badly hindered by the forces of those wishing to make their state and island.
The question of what now? Is answered by industrial managers in coordination of banking in the manner of fueling the cost of start up of various industries and includant of small and medium business alike. Small businesses will follow the course of the needs of people, whilst industry will follow the natural course of production and distribution.
Services will follow the natural course of servicing the needs as requirements will dictate.
In time as the dust settles, the currant population will of course carry with them the memory of what has occured to be forgotten by future populations only as history.
The world will not end nor the skies to fall upon our heads, but a lesson to not be easily forgotten of how to prepare for a disaster of such proportions not before envisioned.
Karl
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Post by pieter on Apr 5, 2020 17:16:29 GMT -7
Karl,
Thank for your rational-analytic reply. I have a few questions for you as a person who comes from the same corner of Europe and the same area where the central core of the original European Union started.
After World War II, European integration was seen as an antidote to the extreme nationalism which had devastated parts of the continent. In a speech delivered on 19 September 1946 at the University of Zürich, Switzerland, Winston Churchill went further and advocated the emergence of a United States of Europe. The 1948 Hague Congress was a pivotal moment in European federal history, as it led to the creation of the European Movement International and of the College of Europe, where Europe's future leaders would live and study together.
It also led directly to the founding of the Council of Europe in 1949, the first great effort to bring the nations of Europe together, initially ten of them. The Council focused primarily on values—human rights and democracy—rather than on economic or trade issues, and was always envisaged as a forum where sovereign governments could choose to work together, with no supra-national authority. It raised great hopes of further European integration, and there were fevered debates in the two years that followed as to how this could be achieved.
But in 1952, disappointed at what they saw as the lack of progress within the Council of Europe, six nations decided to go further and created the European Coal and Steel Community, which was declared to be "a first step in the federation of Europe". This community helped to economically integrate and coordinate the large number of Marshall Plan funds from the United States. European leaders Alcide De Gasperi from Italy, Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman from France, and Paul-Henri Spaak from Belgium understood that coal and steel were the two industries essential for waging war, and believed that by tying their national industries together, future war between their nations became much less likely. These men and others are officially credited as the founding fathers of the European Union.
The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) was an organisation of six European countries created after World War II to regulate their industrial production under a centralised authority. It was formally established in 1951 by the Treaty of Paris, signed by Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and West Germany. The ECSC was the first international organisation to be based on the principles of supranationalism, and started the process of formal integration which ultimately led to the European Union.
Questions:
1) - Will the European Union stay in tact or break down in various parts like Frankish Empire (481–843) into a West Francia, Middle Francia and East Francia, in the sense of for instance a North Western North EU (centered around France and Germany and the Benelux) and a South EU of Italy-Spain-Portugal, Malta, Greece and Cyprus.
The European Union
The EU operates through a hybrid system of supranational and intergovernmental decision-making, and according to the principles of conferral (which says that it should act only within the limits of the competences conferred on it by the treaties) and of subsidiarity (which says that it should act only where an objective cannot be sufficiently achieved by the member states acting alone). Laws made by the EU institutions are passed in a variety of forms. Generally speaking, they can be classified into two groups: those which come into force without the necessity for national implementation measures (regulations) and those which specifically require national implementation measures (directives).
Constitutionally, the EU bears some resemblance to both a confederation and a federation, but has not formally defined itself as either. (It does not have a formal constitution: its status is defined by the Treaty of European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union). It is more integrated than a traditional confederation of states because the general level of government widely employs qualified majority voting in some decision-making among the member states, rather than relying exclusively on unanimity.
2) - In the changing present world with a shifting power balance, will the EU integrate further and will the Union develop military, diplomatic and Federal structures or will the Union stay an supranational, intergovernmental decision-making conferral. Does the Union keep being the Union it is or will it be a Federal state or Confederation in the near future.
3) - Do you think that an European Treaty Organization (ETO) will replace the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), or will NATO continue to exist despite the huge fault lines that exists within the NATO. Turkey vs the European nations with a christian heritage, Turkey vs Greece/Greek Cyprus and the European-American tensions within the NATO.
4) - In our nations we see an increasing/growing local/regional economy next to the National Import & Export based economies. How will this antithesis local vs Global (International) develop itself? Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark are all three export countries and in the same time import a lot of American and Chinese products like Windows and Apple PC's, Facebook, Google, Adobe products, Intel processors, Hollywood and Walt Disney products, Coca Cola and Pepsi cola, American bourbon, American cars, and all the Chinese products we use. Will we see growing local and regional economies that exist next to the traditional national economies that have international trade elements? Do we have a hybrid economy or a national economy?
5) What role will Germany play in the future EU, Central Europe (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Liechtenstein, Poland, Slovakia and Switzerland) and the world?
7) - What will be the place of the USA, China, Russia and Brazil in the coming New World Order. Will there be a New Pax Americana or do you think we will go to a world which will be dominated by China?
Cheers,
Pieter
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Post by karl on Apr 6, 2020 15:57:17 GMT -7
Pieter Yes, how so true, my self am a product of our North Sea Low land Coast and carry the same salt as your self, for this is who we are and what we are. In as much to some natural questions of my self you have asked pertaining as a reply to my reply. I must say in the first, I do not have a crystal ball to read from nor bones to toss as a Hex. For the old women living in the forest a distance from our home in my child hood days did not give me any powers of reading the future. She although was known as a witch, was not true, she was a very kind lady and was very well self taught in the manner of the forest and healing herbs. With this what mushrooms were eatable and which to stay away from.... With a question of the EU and how sustainable it will be in the short and long future is a question that is to the EU to answer. For often is spoken of a United States of Europe. In theory it has a nice ring to it, but in actual fact, it is a very dangerous idea. For one, is the matter of freedom we each desire and require. But, the fact of the matter is, there are two types of freedom: Freedom from and freedom to. Dictators enjoy the freedom from, in the state owns all forms of production and distribution, whilst freedom to, is our democratic form of freedom of self action. If to remove the various states that form Europe and what it is, is to place all eggs in one basket. With this, is the real and present danger of the forming of a dictatorship with in common military. For then the central leadership would be the government and the military and various departments of security would be the club to keep the people in line of the central governments requirement and wishes. Please keep in mind the above is a matter of opinion, the following url is a professional view of the rightful questions you have poised: {my self would have preferred this from a European publication based upon their research, but the Bloomberg one appears to be quite currant: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-18/can-the-european-union-survive-the-coronavirusKarl |
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Post by pieter on Apr 7, 2020 4:44:25 GMT -7
Karl,
Todays modern, technological, digital cyberworld is Global and not local, regional or national. In this Global world with it's geopolitical power, the financial markets, the Central Banks, the large powerful banks, the multi nationals, the billionaores and the Big Four accounting organizations (multinational professional services networks) consisting of Deloitte, Ernst & Young, KPMG, and PricewaterhouseCoopers held a great deal of power.The present 21th century is a different world than the 19th and 20th centuries. Different 21th systems, advanced technology and means of transportation and doing business. And next to that new ideologies and interests compete in today's world.
The interests of various countries, regions and sometimes even continents are different due to different life standards, different climate and environmental and thus different wealth situations. Our North West part of Europe is very trade, production and transport (Import & Export) oriented. The Netherlands, Germany and Denmark are huge export countries and Poland and the Czech republic too, with their industries and their food industries and agricultures. Part of the German production takes place in Poland. For instance the VW Caddy 3 is produced in Poznań (Poland), the Scania bus body assembly takes place in Słupsk (Poland), Opel has a factory in Gliwice (Poland), Opel Dielsel engines were produced in Opel Manufacturing Poland in Tychy (Poland), you have Skoda (Volkswagen group) factories in the Czech Republic and a Ford factory in Slovakia. Other Western industrial products are produced in Central-Europe as well. Poland has it's own public transport bus, trolly bus (electric or hybrid busses), trams and trucks factories. Poland has a lot of Locomotive- and Rail vehicle manufacturers as well. This next to the Polish chemical, metal, coal and advanced food industries and breweries. The samen counts of coures for Slovakia, the Czech republic, Hungary, the Baltic states (quite advanced modern internet economies) and Romania.
'Our' Denmark en the Netherlands are small nations with a large commercial navy fleet, Cruise ship companies, fisher fleets, multi nationals and industries, Danish & Dutch design, innovative industries, succesful banks and financial companies and small and middle big companies. The 2 countries are real Import & Export countries that are very focussed on trade and also dependent on the large continental European market, trade ties with the UK, the USA, Canada and Asia. Thank god we have modern agricultures and good food industries (we have Unilever), good farmers and also our local & regional economies.
I wonder what the long term will bring us in this part of Europe, and what it will bring to Poland and the USA, where my family and friends live. Last but not least I hope that my family and friends in South-Africa will survive this crisis through cooperation, and the networks of family, friends, colleagues, neighbours and social/sport circles. They are struggling to survive just like many people in the USA, Europe, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Russia, the Ukraine and Belarus do (in their Eastern-European part of Europe). We all try to survive and we should realise that we are interdependent, and that is why it is fascinating to see how China is helping the world (also New York).
Whether that is for humanistic or oportunistic reasons, that doesn't matter. We have to survive now and go through this difficult phase.
The best to you all and keep fit (healthy), strong and positive.
Cheers,
Pieterwww.aei.org/op-eds/were-too-dependent-on-china-for-too-many-critical-goods-especially-medicine/
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Post by Jaga on Apr 7, 2020 5:01:51 GMT -7
Pieter, I just saw that Netherland's is doing better and it is flattening the curve, but Belgium shows some high numbers. Sweden took un-orthodox approach and they don't have social distancing. We will see whether it will work. Yesterday they had high numbers after several days of low numbers.
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Post by pieter on Apr 7, 2020 6:59:20 GMT -7
Jaga,
Sweden again in a few years time has shown unresponsible behaviour. First they took in unlimited amounts of refugees and now they ignore the warning signs of the coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan China, Italy, Spain, New York, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom and other countries not serious. I get sometimes the idea that the Nordic Scandinavian countries are naive progressive play grounds, where Denmark is more realistic and Hungary and the US sometimes move to far to the right. Just my personal subject opinion, not the general Dutch public view. So, sorry I don't believe in the Swedish un-orthodox approach of zero social distancing and unlimited group activities (full bars, schools, public gatherings and etc.). Maybe I am to judgemental, but that's the way I am. I do believe that the Swedish approach is extremely dangerous. Yes, thank god the Netherlands is doing better and we are flattening the curve. But the government warned for to early satisfaction and kept their strict measures in place, like social distancing and hygienic advices. There are still people in hospital and still people dying. In New York the situation is desastrous. The Coronavirus reached 22,194 confirmed cases in Belgium today. The total number of deaths in Belgium since the beginning of the pandemic is currently 2,035. 162 new deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours. “241 additional deaths were also reported by care centres in Flanders. Those deaths took place between 1 and 4 April, and as said before, sometimes there is a little bit of delay in when they are reported.”.
I am curious for Karl's and Kai (Ron's) replies, because Karl has his Danish and German North-West-European roots, connections and mindset and because Kai (Ron) lives in Scandinavian circumstances. The North of the Nothern hemisphere, similar climate, similar sparsely populated area's and a different mindset than the continent with the large peoples masses. Maybe I am to judgemental and thus maybe Kai and Karl could put things into perspective. Maybe you (Jaga), John and Jeanne have ideas about that too.
Pieterwww.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/105202/coronavirus-belgium-reaches-22194-confirmed-cases/
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/coronavirus-world-map-which-countries-have-the-most-cases-and-deaths
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019
www.britannica.com/story/covid-19-terminology-explained
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen
www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19
www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-main.page
www.coronavirus.gov/
www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-supply-substances-human-origin.pdf
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Post by karl on Apr 7, 2020 14:47:04 GMT -7
Pieter
First, in my own personal opinion, I do not believe you are judgemental, for placing your self on line of what you know and believe, this is what it is, truth. For you have covered a great deal of material, facts and information, for this is what you do as a professional Journalist. For as your self, a great many folks here have an opinion and some thing to say of this subject for it effects us all.
Just for the reason we live across the pond is no matter we are different for this issue effects all of us..
Karl
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