Post by Jaga on May 8, 2020 21:34:02 GMT -7
The presidential elections in Poland were predicted for this Sunday, May 10, but because of the Covid-19, they would be delayed and the way they would be done would change. It is all messy, since the parlament votes for allowing elections by mail. On the other hand, the opposition did not have a chance to have a normal political campaign. Everybody is very upset about the election seems it looks that the president would be automatically re-elected at the end of August.
Race to the bottom: all Polish election outcomes are bad
The presidential electoral race originally scheduled for 10 May in Poland is the climax point in the history of this government.
The Covid-19 pandemic has enabled the party of Jarosław Kaczyński to attempt a final power grab that has been in the making for the last five years.
At first sight, it looks like a defensive strategy. In the semi-presidential system, the president's office holds powers to veto nearly any law unless the parliament overrules it with 3/5 majority. Event the Law & Justice [PiS] party is not that strong.
Many believe that if the incumbent Andrzej Duda loses it would shorten the life expectancy of the government, by incapacitating otherwise unlimited rule of Kaczyński - the chairman behind the official cabinet, who pulls all the strings in the country.
Others point out a unique chance to save the democratic political culture - by electing anyone but PiS - would restore the balance of powers and enforce much-needed compromise.
There is no doubt that presidential elections in May should be postponed. The introduction of a 'state of natural disaster' prescribed in the constitution would be a natural step with such a consequence.
On 6 August the office of the president would be vacated. The Speaker of Sejm would become acting president and would then have up to 14 days to announce a new vote within 60 days.
In such a case elections would need to take place by mid-October - unless the government introduces a state of a natural disaster, which postpones elections by a minimum 90 days and automatically extends the term.
This would be a logical step which is in line with many voices, even within PiS, that elections should be postponed until next year or more.
Kaczyński is also one of the signatories of a new law proposed to keep the incumbent in office for two additional years without the right to be re-elected - an amendment to the constitution.
But instead, Kaczyński pushes for organising a contested vote in May.
Possible scenarios
It looks like the PiS is playing a game of chicken in which the first to divert from the collision course loses, while the last one standing claims total victory.
The uncertainty of the current situation, without comparative opinion polling, leaves a couple of scenarios open.
A first scenario assumes that voting in May is held via postal voting, and organised despite obvious unfair practices.
In one scenario the incumbent Duda is declared a winner in the first round by the government - which immediately triggers a strong response by the opposition and civil society that submits their case to the Supreme Court.
It remains up to the court to validate the result - and while it has not nullified the vote yet, there are a lot of grounds to do that.
more is here:
euobserver.com/opinion/148133
Race to the bottom: all Polish election outcomes are bad
The presidential electoral race originally scheduled for 10 May in Poland is the climax point in the history of this government.
The Covid-19 pandemic has enabled the party of Jarosław Kaczyński to attempt a final power grab that has been in the making for the last five years.
At first sight, it looks like a defensive strategy. In the semi-presidential system, the president's office holds powers to veto nearly any law unless the parliament overrules it with 3/5 majority. Event the Law & Justice [PiS] party is not that strong.
Many believe that if the incumbent Andrzej Duda loses it would shorten the life expectancy of the government, by incapacitating otherwise unlimited rule of Kaczyński - the chairman behind the official cabinet, who pulls all the strings in the country.
Others point out a unique chance to save the democratic political culture - by electing anyone but PiS - would restore the balance of powers and enforce much-needed compromise.
There is no doubt that presidential elections in May should be postponed. The introduction of a 'state of natural disaster' prescribed in the constitution would be a natural step with such a consequence.
On 6 August the office of the president would be vacated. The Speaker of Sejm would become acting president and would then have up to 14 days to announce a new vote within 60 days.
In such a case elections would need to take place by mid-October - unless the government introduces a state of a natural disaster, which postpones elections by a minimum 90 days and automatically extends the term.
This would be a logical step which is in line with many voices, even within PiS, that elections should be postponed until next year or more.
Kaczyński is also one of the signatories of a new law proposed to keep the incumbent in office for two additional years without the right to be re-elected - an amendment to the constitution.
But instead, Kaczyński pushes for organising a contested vote in May.
Possible scenarios
It looks like the PiS is playing a game of chicken in which the first to divert from the collision course loses, while the last one standing claims total victory.
The uncertainty of the current situation, without comparative opinion polling, leaves a couple of scenarios open.
A first scenario assumes that voting in May is held via postal voting, and organised despite obvious unfair practices.
In one scenario the incumbent Duda is declared a winner in the first round by the government - which immediately triggers a strong response by the opposition and civil society that submits their case to the Supreme Court.
It remains up to the court to validate the result - and while it has not nullified the vote yet, there are a lot of grounds to do that.
more is here:
euobserver.com/opinion/148133