Polish missile crisis

[redneck]

from FT.com



A Polish missile crisis?
During the presidential election campaign Joe Biden warned rather injudiciously that world leaders would test Barack Obama’s mettle within six months of him taking office. Well, it doesn’t seem to have taken them that long. On the very day of Obama’s election, the Russian government announced plans to deploy cruise missiles in Kaliningrad, a tiny Russian enclave that borders Poland.

The Russians deploying missiles in a way that threatens American strategic interests and poses a test for a new, young, charismatic American president - what does that remind you of? JFK and Cuba, of course. A few months ago I heard Robert Kagan, an adviser to McCain, argue that inexperienced and liberal presidents are more likely to end up in dangerous international confrontations because hostile foreigners are more likely to put them to the test, and the new president is going to feel the need to show that he is tough. Eisenhower got through eight years without a truly dangerous confrontation with the Russians. But Kennedy had the Cuba missile crisis

With any luck, however, the Polish missile crisis won’t get anywhere near as dangerous as that. First, the Russians have their timing slightly off. Obama doesn’t take office until mid-January. By then the crisis might have been resolved, or the Americans might have got used to the idea of the new Russian deployment. Second, the missiles are actually going to be deployed on Russian, rather than Cuban soil. That obviously makes a big difference.

But the Russians have still miscalculated. I know that there was debate in Democratic Party circles about the wisdom of the anti-missile system that the Americans are deploying in Poland and the Czech Republic, which the Russians are so narked about. But there is no way that the Americans or the Poles will back down now. In fact, there was no way they could back down, after the Russian invasion of Georgia. The real debate in Obama circles will not be about whether to withdraw the missile system from Poland - it will be about whether to deploy Nato troops and assets in the Baltic states - and so heighten tensions with Russia still further.

[redneck]

From russiatoday.com

Talks to resume on missile defence?
Russia has reiterated its position on deploying Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. It did say though that it would only do so if the U.S. goes ahead with building its defence shield in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Washington says it wants to resume talks with Moscow over the issue.

Speaking in Moscow, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said:

”Russia's position, as voiced by President Medvedev, is that if the U.S. goes ahead with its plans and actually installs this radar in Europe, then one of the measures Russia will use to neutralise the inevitable threat to Russia's national security will be the deployment of Iskander missiles.”

The Iskander missiles Russia is proposing would be within striking distance of the planned U.S. sites.

Earlier, U.S. president-elect Barack Obama reportedly told Poland that there was no guarantee the proposed anti-missile shield will be built. The move could indicate that the next American government is preparing to change policy on the controversial defence system.

Britain’s Daily Telegraph reported on Monday that Obama 'did not make any promises concerning the anti-missile shield' in a telephone conversation with the Polish president Lech Kaczynski.

The source said that officials in Warsaw believe that now the chances of the project going ahead stand at no more than "50 per cent".

Radek Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, was also quoted as saying that the worsening state of the American economy might force the president-elect to abandon, or at least delay the programme, in favour of domestic priorities.

The news has given a boost to Moscow, which is vehemently opposed to the missile shield. Russia is expected to hold off reaching agreements on defence with the U.S. until the new administration takes office in January.

"We have taken note of the U.S. president-elect Barack Obama's position on these issues. It inspires the hope that we will be able to deal with them more constructively in the coming period," said Lavrov on Sunday.

Lavrov also said Russia would be ready for extensive consultations on the issue before the end of the year, but that agreements concerning both strategic offensive weapons and missile defense "will surely be negotiated with a new U.S. administration."

Meanwhile, the current American leadership is urging Russia to continue talks on missile defence.

U.S. State Department spokesman, Robert Wood, said Washington remained “interested in talking to Russia about missile defence and that they have nothing to fear from our missile defence system that we would like to set up in Europe."

Russia views U.S. plans to install 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic as aggressive. However, the U.S. maintains that the system is aimed at countering future rogue threats from the Middle East and Iran in particular.

The U.S. seems to have changed tack after President Medvedev's address to the Federal Assembly last week after the Russian leader said Moscow would be forced to place missiles in its westernmost Kaliningrad region bordering Poland if the U.S. went ahead with its planned bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.

[karl]

Tim

For as you see, this is one of the primary situation problems of both high concerns mixed with consternation with Relation ship between Europe and America. It is the in-consistency of American Foreign Policy.

It would appear as it is, American Foreign Policy is malleable and dependent to change with each change in administration.

With each change, creates in-self, an uncertainty with the administration of each respective government America is dealing with. It knocks off balance previous expectations and commitments that were created.

America really needs to create progressive consistency in the Foreign Policy in over seas dealings each respective foreign power. In this manner, reasonable expectations may be realized for addressing each specific issue so each may be addressed in diplomatic negotiations.

As it stands, each American administration is a turkey shoot in relationship to Foreign policy expectations.

Karl

[redneck]

Yes Karl,

This situation illustrates that point beautifully.

It is new for me to be aware of these things. It is difficult for an American as myself to keep track of the condition of my own country. Adding the responsibility to others is sometimes too much.

I forsee in the future that America will have much less of a role in the rest of the world and Europe would be wise to make itself much more self reliant.