Post by pieter on Oct 2, 2023 15:22:54 GMT -7
Today, 10:27 PM
Cracks in Western support for Ukraine: 'This is what Putin hopes for'
European Foreign Minister gather with Ukrainian president Vlodymyr Zelinskyy in Kiyv Monday
To show that the European Union stands firmly behind its ally Ukraine, almost all foreign ministers met in Kyiv today. Because there are cracks in the unity that the EU has shown since the start of the war. And that is bad news for Ukraine.
"This is the first time that we are together with 27 countries, in a country that is at war," outgoing Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs Hanke Bruins Slot told Nieuwsuur (Newshour) from Kyiv. "It is a way to show that we jointly support Ukraine and that we will continue to do so as long as necessary."
So jointly, but not completely. The foreign ministers of Poland and Hungary were conspicuous by their absence. Hungary has been obstructive in providing financial and military support to Ukraine since the start of the war, and Poland reversed course a few weeks ago. Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki announced that he would not make any new arms commitments to Ukraine for the time being.
"Poland is in the middle of the election campaign, so that explains part of what is happening there," says Eastern Europe expert Bob Deen. "Poland's interest in protecting its own agriculture and blocking Ukrainian grain outweighs Ukraine's interest in having money to fight Russia."
The outcome of the elections has major consequences for Ukraine. The PiS party is at the top of the polls, but will need another party to govern. "The KPN party (Confederation of Independent Poland (KPN, Polish: Konfederacja Polski Niepodległej)) has quite an anti-Ukrainian and anti-European sentiment. If they start governing with that party, it will not bode well for Ukraine."
Ukrainian President Zelensky at the cabinet meeting in Kyiv
No more bullets to Ukraine'
Another concern for Ukraine is the recent election win in Slovakia of the pro-Russian Robert Fico. With his party Smer he entered the elections with the slogan "no more bullets to Ukraine". A possible government partner of Smer is the Slovak People's Party. "These two parties together will be less inclined to support Ukraine," Deen said.
In addition to Hungary, two European countries have been added that no longer unequivocally support Ukraine, or even adopt a pro-Russian attitude. "This shows how fragile that European support is," Deen outlines. "It is said: we fully support Ukraine, until it costs too much money, until the farmers get angry, until we need the weapons ourselves. It only takes a few elections to put pressure on European unity."
Yet despite these political shifts, European support in general is still strong. The European Union has released 50 billion euros until 2027. Political developments in neighboring countries are therefore not the biggest concern for Ukraine, but for those on the other side of the ocean, in the United States.
'This is what Putin hopes for'
The US Congress has so far approved $113 billion in weapons and other aid since Russia invaded Ukraine. If it were up to President Biden, an additional $24 billion would be added, but under pressure from Congress, $6 billion has been removed. Fewer and fewer Americans support the billions going to Ukraine and a group of Republican hardliners believe that the government should make significant cuts, including in support for Ukraine.
Deen: "The majority of Ukrainian efforts are aimed at getting the US on board. That was their most important ally."
All developments added together, both in Europe and the US, make Ukraine nervous, says Deen. “This is exactly what Putin is hoping for. They know that they cannot take Ukraine completely as long as Western support continues. What they can do is continue to attack the infrastructure, the power grid, grain exports and hope that Western support decreases. Russia is trying to win it in the long run."
Translated from Dutch by Pieter Pluijgers with Google translate
Source: nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2492675-scheurtjes-in-westerse-steun-voor-oekraine-dit-is-waar-poetin-op-hoopt