Kim Jong Il had a stroke

[Jaga]

SEOUL: U.S. and South Korean intelligence reports that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, recently suffered a stroke raise issues that the North's neighbors have long feared. If Kim is incapacitated or dies, who will take over one of the world's most isolated and unpredictable regimes, now armed with nuclear weapons? And what will happen to a nation that has long looked on Kim as a godlike figure?

South Korean lawmakers told reporters on Wednesday after a briefing by the National Intelligence Service that Kim suffered a cerebral hemorrhage in mid-August and underwent surgery, but has recovered enough to speak and walk.

Kim Sung Ho, the South's spy chief, told the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee that this was not the first time that Kim had been operated on for a circulation problem. There was no sign of unrest in the North, the lawmakers were told.

A spokeswoman for the National Intelligence Service said in an interview later Wednesday, "We have intelligence reports that after intensive treatments, his condition has considerably improved." She spoke on condition of anonymity, in keeping with agency policy.

In Pyongyang on Wednesday, the Japanese news agency Kyodo quoted North Korea's No. 2 leader, Kim Yong Nam, as saying that there was "no problem" with Kim Jong Il.

www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/10/asia/north.php

[justjohn]

Times Online

From The Sunday Times
September 7, 2008

North Korea ‘uses doubles to hide death of Kim’

Michael Sheridan, Far East Correspondent

Is Kim Jong-il for real? The question has baffled foreign intelligence agencies for years but now a veteran Japanese expert on North Korea says the “dear leader” is actually dead – and his role is played by a double.

The expert says Kim died of diabetes in 2003 and world leaders including Vladimir Putin of Russia and Hu Jintao of China have been negotiating with an impostor.

He believes that Kim, fearing assassination, had groomed up to four lookalikes to act as substitutes at public events. One underwent plastic surgery to make his appearance more convincing. Now, the expert claims, the actors are brought on stage whenever required to persuade the masses that Kim is alive.

The author has been derided by rival analysts of the hermetic communist state. Yet so few facts are known about North Korea’s ruling dynasty that some of the strange things reported in Professor Toshimitsu Shigemura’s bestselling book cannot be readily explained.

“Scholars don’t trust my reasoning but intelligence people see the possibility that it will turn out to be accurate,” he said. “I have identified and pinned down every source.”

The book, The True Character of Kim Jong-il, cites sources from inside North Korea and from the intelligence services of Japan and South Korea.

One of its principal claims is that a voiceprint analysis of Kim’s speech at a 2004 meeting with Junichiro Koizumi, then the Japanese prime minister, did not match an authenticated earlier recording.

His book traces Kim’s supposed demise to autumn 2003 when he vanished for about 42 days. Most analysts put this down to mourning for one of his wives, a power struggle inside the Kim dynasty or fear of an American strike.

Kim’s poor health has been the subject of speculation for decades. The professor’s contribution is to cite Russian and Chinese sources saying he had diabetes and illnesses of the heart, liver and lungs, with depression thrown in.

There have been persistent reports that a stand-in appears for Kim at military parades and he is notoriously reclusive. He did not appear in public to receive the Olympic torch in Pyongyang on April 28.

The professor argues that no substantive policy decisions have been taken since North Korea joined nuclear disarmament talks in 2003.

South Korean analysts who attended two summits with Kim (before and after his supposed death) reported that he had indeed changed appearance. But that was because he had lost weight, quit smoking, given up cognac in favour of red bordeaux and coaxed the rest of the politburo onto a health kick.

Additional reporting: Shota Ushio, Tokyo

[justjohn]

U.S., China Laying Plans in Case North Korea Collapses

Thursday , September 11, 2008
By Wendell Goler

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is more impaired from the stroke he apparently suffered last month than reports from the region suggest, and the United States and China are holding talks about what to do if the government in Pyongyang collapses, FOX News has learned.

A senior Bush administration official says that although Kim may not be close to death, the U.S. does not accept reports from South Korea that he’s on his way to a rapid recovery.

The official told FOX News the United States is naturally engaging the Chinese about what to do if there is ensuing instability in North Korea.

There is no logical successor to Kim. He has not been grooming one of his sons to replace him, as Kim’s father, Kim Il Sung, groomed him.

The official told FOX News there are no signs of instability in North Korea now, but the likelihood of a smooth transition of power in that country is not high.

The source said the Chinese are reluctant to admit the discussions publicly, because of their close relationship with North Korea.

The official said Kim obviously is physically impaired or he’d have taken part in this week celebration marking the nation's 60th anniversary. The ceremony contained some production elements to obscure the fact that Kim wasn’t there.

Media reports Thursday said Kim’s condition has improved but that he could have partial paralysis on one side.

With that degree of physical impairment, doctors say, there is often some mental impairment. And if he were incapacitated, it could have serious implications for international negotiation on the country’s nuclear disarmament.

The Bush official pointed to two recent decisions in the six-party talks that both need Kim’s approval and seem to have been put on hold: North Korea’s release of a verification protocol on its nuclear disarmament, and an agreement with the Japanese on abductions.

The official called the talks with the Chinese about as sensitive as they come. He said it would be irresponsible, given North Korea’s nuclear weapons, not to be holding them.

[justjohn]

BBC NEWS
Kim rumours provide a wake-up call

By Becky Branford
BBC News

The absence of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, from celebrations marking the 60th anniversary of the country's founding triggered a frenzy of speculation.

Several analysts suggested he had died, others that he was incapacitated.

The conclusion reached by South Korea's intelligence service on Wednesday was that he had suffered a stroke, but was still capable of running the country.

Some say all this speculation about Mr Kim's health was an overreaction.

But many others have pointed out that the rumours raise a very important point - one day Mr Kim will die or become unable to govern; does the world have a plan for what to do then?

Stroke

There have been repeated suspicions that Mr Kim suffers a serious illness - bolstered by the impression that he has seemed weak and overweight in his last few appearances in public.
Given the stakes involved, you would think that the US, South Korea and other regional partners had some type of agreed upon plan. Nope
Victor Cha
Former North Korea adviser to President Bush

Along with a stroke, South Korean intelligence sources suggest he also suffers from diabetes and heart disease.

North Korea has coped with the death of a leader once before - in 1994, when Great Leader Kim Il-sung died.

But analysts say that was different. When Kim Jong-il took over from his father, he had long been groomed as a successor.

This time, "the children are young and with no obvious experience in terms of managing anything", Hazel Smith, North Korea specialist at Warwick University, told the BBC's Today programme. None has been officially recognised as a successor.

Power-sharing

Amid the vacuum, there have been reports of an embryonic power struggle within the North Korean elite.

It is dominated by three main groups: the Kim family, the Korean Workers' Party and the armed forces.

Lee Chung-min, professor of international relations at Seoul's prestigious Yonsei University, says any new figurehead would probably be nominated by the army but "would immediately have to share power with the family and party".

"Such an unstable three-legged stool," he said, "won't last long".

There have been big changes in North Korea in the 14 years since Kim Il-sung passed away.

A devastating famine and economic collapse have - to an extent - loosened the government's suffocating hold on its people, particularly in cities and in border regions. Private economic activity has blossomed as state provision has failed.

Army struggle

But there are tensions within the army over whether to continue with such reforms, according to Professor Smith.

"There are elements in the military [who] want to see modernisation and more contact with foreigners, because they can see ways of making money and rebuilding the military," she said.

"But there are also parts of this huge military who want to go back to the old nationalist project. It looks like it's going to be those different points of view within the military who will be battling it out for the future of North Korea."

For Leonid Petrov, North Korea historian at Australian National University, this tug of war over reforms is key to how North Koreans will respond to the demise of Kim Jong-il.

He says the population was badly traumatised by the death of Kim Il-sung - partly because of the personality cult which surrounded him, but partly also because it heralded a period of intense isolation and impoverishment in which more than a million people may have died.

Dr Petrov suggests any internal candidate able to preserve short-term stability would probably be more conservative than Kim Jong-il.

But he warns against any such candidate attempting to roll back the economic reforms that have allowed North Koreans a little more room to make an independent living.

Small protests have been reported in areas where local officials have attempted to rein in private trading - and such protests could snowball.

That could be a central factor in how durable any successor regime proves to be.

External planning

It is, of course, difficult to assess what preparations have been made in Washington, Beijing and Seoul for a succession crisis in North Korea, because governments do not often reveal details of their contingency planning.

But the picture painted by analysts is a gloomy one.

While South Korea is certain to have spent decades planning for this eventuality, Dr Petrov points out that they face the serious problems of a lack of a plausible opposition to the North Korean regime and no convincing candidate for leader either inside or outside the country.

In Washington there are accusations of lack of planning over North Korea from people as senior as Victor Cha, former North Korea adviser to President Bush.

In an article in June, he wrote: "Given the stakes involved, you would think that the US, South Korea and other regional partners had some type of agreed upon plan. Nope."

Spillover

He cautioned that a "quiet discussion among concerned governments about how to deal with potential North Korean instability" was needed "before the next rumour turns out to be true".

The impact of what happens inside North Korea's borders is not confined to North Korea.

The country may possess nuclear weapons.

Failing social provision within North Korea has already sent thousands of humanitarian refugees streaming beyond the country's borders - mainly into north-eastern China. A leadership crisis could turn this stream into a flood.

Sitting between China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, North Korea is situated in a place of extreme geopolitical importance.

Even if Kim Jong-il is still alive and well, these rumours of his ill health may prove to be a useful wake-up call.

Story from BBC NEWS:
news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/7608398.stm

Published: 2008/09/10 14:06:40 GMT

[nathanael]

So, North Korea is reportedly rebuilding its nuclear reactor. I stand squarely with North Korea on this! It is hard to blame them. Our government appears unable to switch from their traditional mind frame to the mind frames of other good and decent people on this planet! North Korea is one such people! Their nation had suffered enough to put up with meanness our State Department has exhibited in not taking them from the terrorist list, after they made a courageous effort to disarm! That's not how you deal with a proud people who have suffered: you give them the benefit of the doubt! What our government is doing is an affront to my intelligence! May be this is because I have lived under Hitler and Stalin, and have learned a few things about life!