The Polish election today

[pieter]

NOS News• today, 07:18

Poland goes to the polls, but not every vote carries the same weight

Charlotte Waaijers (Dutch reporter/journalist)

Correspondent Central Europe

Today Poland is experiencing the denouement of a long and fierce election campaign: almost 30 million Poles can vote today. Polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between the government and the opposition and that is why every vote is being fought for.

The very last battle will be fought today at the polling station. There, both the government and the opposition are still trying to manipulate the electoral system to their own advantage.

Rise in rural areas

Municipal secretary Angelika Pasek-Gilarska pushes open the door of an abandoned fire station in Łochów, a small municipality in eastern Poland. In the middle of an empty room is a brand new transparent box of more than one meter high. “This is where the votes will go in soon,” she says.

The barracks is one of seven new polling stations in the municipality. Smaller towns throughout Poland have also been given their own electoral district this time. This means that people do not have to travel as far, and today even buses are used for those who have difficulty walking.

It is an initiative of the Polish government, intended to increase the low turnout in rural areas. The ruling party PiS itself will probably benefit from this: because the party has more support among the elderly and in rural areas, this can give them extra votes.

Mirosław Gołaszewski, mayor of Łochów on behalf of PiS, does not think this is unfair. "If it stays within the framework of the law and encourages people to vote, it is positive. That is how democracy works." Moreover: "The other political side also has all kinds of means to encourage supporters."


The main challenger to the conservative ruling party PiS of Prime Minister Morawiecki and party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski today is the liberal Civic Platform. That party is led by Donald Tusk, former Prime Minister and President of the European Council.


The opposition is indeed not standing still, although that also seems to be born out of necessity. “I am trying to use everything I can within our electoral law to reverse the injustice in the system,” says economist Michał Majewski.

By "injustice" he refers to the fact that not every vote carries the same weight everywhere. Seats are divided among districts and are won by the party that receives the most votes in the district.

But fewer and fewer people live in the countryside, and more in the cities. Yet the current government has not adjusted the districts.

“To earn a seat in Warsaw this election you need to get about 85,000 votes, while for the same seat in the constituency just down the road you only need about 35,000 votes,” Majewski said. The government, which therefore has more support in the countryside, can get a seat with fewer votes. While votes for the opposition will be 'lost' more often in the cities.

And so Majewski and others built a website where you can find out where your voice is likely to have more influence. The hope is that today thousands of Poles from progressive cities, where the opposition wins anyway, will vote in another district, so that the opposition can win additional seats. In the Polish media they have already been renamed 'voting tourists'.

Counting becomes a tough job

There are other issues affecting voting today. Poles can also vote on four very different questions that are presented to them in a referendum. According to critics, this is also mainly a trick by the ruling party PiS to win more votes.

And then there are Poles abroad, who are more often in favor of the opposition, who are allowed to vote. This time more than 600,000, a record. So much so that there are reports that polling stations abroad are becoming too crowded. Poles in the Netherlands would be advised to go to Belgium or Germany.

All those votes must be counted within 24 hours, at the same time as all votes added as a result of the referendum. The opposition wonders whether that will work.

The polling stations close at 9 p.m. It is expected that it may take some time before it is clear how all votes have been distributed.

Source: nos.nl/artikel/2494127-polen-naar-de-stembus-maar-niet-elke-stem-weegt-even-zwaar

[Jaga]

Pieter, thanks for a good reporting. This referendum thing does not make any sense, the questions are biased and unnecessary. The public mass media is very biased and do propaganda and politickiering instead of real news. The ruling party also spend tax payer funds organizing pro-ruling party festivities. It is sad but true.

[Jaga]

Here is more from the Washington Post

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/15/poland-election-results-2023/

Poland votes in most pivotal election since fall of the Berlin Wall
By Anthony Faiola and Annabelle Chapman
October 15, 2023 at 8:09 a.m. EDT

Poles began voting Sunday in their most pivotal election since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with stark consequences for the future of Polish democracy, European unity and the West’s effort to confront Russian aggression.

The highly charged campaign saw some of the largest rallies on Warsaw’s streets since the restoration of democracy three decades ago. Opposition leader Donald Tusk is seeking a “breakthrough moment” in his long and personal fight against the hard right Law and Justice party (PiS) led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. In eight years of rule, the archconservatives have boosted Poland’s economy, while exerting control over the courts and the media, backing severe restrictions on abortion, targeting LBGTQ+ rights and undermining the bonds of the European Union.

What to know about Poland’s election, Europe’s most-watched vote of 2023

The campaign has been swathed in nationalism, with both sides staking out anti-migrant stances. Tusk has also sought to portray the vote as a referendum on democracy.

“The stakes are the highest possible,” Tusk — Poland’s prime minister from 2007 to 2014 and a former president of the European Council — told supporters on Friday.


Opposition leader Donald Tusk casts his ballot in Warsaw. (Petr David Josek/AP)
Kaczynski, currently Poland’s deputy prime minister though long considered the country’s most powerful politician, reviles Tusk. Last week, he encouraged his countrymen to vote for continuity for “peaceful development and a safe future.”

Poland faces a pivotal election. Observers say it isn’t a fair vote.

Nearly 30 million Poles are eligible to vote. Polls close at 9 p.m. Warsaw time, when generally reliable exit polls are set to be released. Especially if the vote is inclusive, it could take days or longer for a government to emerge and could lead to another vote next year.

Some analysts question whether Law and Justice would go peacefully if it loses, or seek to challenge the results. It has already limited the independence of the National Electoral Commission and the Supreme Court, which would likely be involved in adjudicating a contested vote.

In what many analysts have criticized as a bid to stoke support for the ruling party, Poles are also being presented with four referendum questions. One asks if “you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa.” The opposition has encouraged voters to boycott the referendum, but to do that they must actively decline the referendum ballot — making their private voting preference known to poll workers.

Law and Justice party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski speaks to supporters on Friday, the final day of campaigning. (Jaap Arriens/AFP/Getty Images)
The outcome is being especially watched in Washington, Brussels, Kyiv and Moscow, as Poland is central to the West’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has equipped Ukraine with German-made Leopard 2 tanks and Polish MiG-29 fighters. It has also taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees since the start of the war.

But domestic politics have clouded that support. Last month, a dispute over the impact of Ukrainian grain exports on Polish farmers escalated to the point where Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki raised the prospect of an end to Polish arms shipments.

The grain spat threatening to wipe out goodwill between Poland and Ukraine

A nun votes at a polling station in Warsaw. (Kacper Pempel/Reuters)
Law and Justice is leading most polls but could fall short of a governing majority, creating a window for the opposition. That has raised the prospect of a political agreement between Law and Justice and the even harder right Confederation party, whose rock concert-like rallies have drawn Poles disaffected with traditional parties and whose politicians have pushed anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.

Co-led by a social media star who once quipped, allegedly in jest, that his backers were against “Jews, homosexuals, abortion, taxation and the European Union,” Confederation witnessed an initial surge that cooled ahead of the vote, especially as Law and Justice adopted a less supportive line on Ukraine. But the party still appears poised to pass the threshold needed for its lawmakers to enter parliament.

Any Law and Justice deal with Confederation would be more bad news for Ukraine, especially after Robert Fico, a pro-Russian politician from the far-left with many positions that align with the far-right, returned to power this month in neighboring Slovakia.

Pro-Russian populist party wins Slovakian election

Confederation has maintained that it would not enter a coalition with any of Poland’s traditional parities, though analysts still see room some form of political deal with the party or its individual lawmakers.

“That would be bad for Polish-Ukrainian relations and Poland’s support for Ukraine,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Warsaw-based Institute of Public Affairs.

In Poland’s complicated parliamentary system, political parties and alliances must past a bar of 5 percent or 8 percent respectively to win seats in parliament. If they don’t cross that threshold, those seats are distributed among other parties, with the largest voter winner seeing the biggest gains.

Given the polarized electorate, three smaller political forces alliances — Confederation, the Left party and a center-right alliance known as the Third Way — appear key to the outcome. The Left and Third Way both appear more natural allies of Tusk, though Kaczynski could seek to pick off individual lawmakers, particularly from the agrarian Polish People’s Party that forms part of the Third Way alliance.

[Jaga]

Pieter, Karl and all,

for now it looks that that the Law and Order autocratic government may be over, They got the most votes, but it is still less than 40% according to exit polls, so hopefully the other parties may join and govern. Still this might be premature, since the exit polls are usually friendly towards the liberals.

I just don't Law and Order propaganda be on public TV promoted as everybody's view.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67118787

Polish ruling party set to lose majority - exit poll

Civic Platform (PO)leader Donald Tusk (C) reacts during Law and Justice party parliamentary elections night in Warsaw, Poland, 15 October 2023.

BBC News
The right-wing populist Law and Justice party is on course to win most seats in Poland's general election, an exit poll suggests, but is unlikely to secure a third term in office.

Known as PiS, it is set to win 36.8% of the vote, with the centrist opposition on 31.6%, says the Ipsos poll.

If that is correct, Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition has a better chance of forming a coalition.

He is aiming to end eight years of PiS rule under leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

The PiS leader admitted he did not know if the party's "success will be able to be turned into another term in power".

"Poland won, democracy has won," Mr Tusk, 66, told a large crowd of jubilant supporters in what felt like a victory rally in Warsaw. "This is the end of the bad times, this is the end of the PiS government."

There were roars as the exit poll flashed up on the screen and Mr Tusk appeared to loud cheers and chants of his name.

Supporters appeared stunned by the exit poll, and election officials said later that turnout was probably 72.9%, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989.

PiS was heading for 200 seats in the 460-seat Sejm or parliament, it said, which would fall some way short of the 231 seats needed for a majority. It is unlikely to have much help from the far-right Confederation party, whose leader admitted it had fared far worse than expected, with a predicted 12 seats.

Mr Kaczynski has painted his rival as a puppet of Berlin and Brussels and vowed to maintain his party's strong anti-migration policies.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters they had to hope, but the exit poll showed a loss of 35 seats
Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk has described the vote as Poland's most important since the fall of communism and vital for its future in the European Union.

He has vowed to improve relations with the EU and unlock €36bn (£30bn) of EU Covid pandemic recovery funds frozen in a row over PiS judicial reforms that led to staffing top courts with judges sympathetic to the ruling party.

If the exit poll is borne out, Mr Tusk's party has more chance of forming a broad coalition, with centre-right Third Way and left-wing Lewica.

There were few smiles among PiS party faithful in the minutes before the close of polls.

"We have to hope," Mr Kaczynski declared. "Regardless of whether we are in power or whether we are in opposition, we will implement this project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed."

PiS supporters put on a brave face, chanting "Jaroslaw" and waving Polish flags, as the exit poll suggested they had lost 35 seats since the 2019 election.

A party spokesman told the BBC he was still hopeful of forming a government as the exit poll was just a prediction.

Big queues formed outside polling stations across Poland and beyond on Sunday.

A marbled foyer in Warsaw's Stalinist Palace of Culture was crammed with voters, who snaked out into the square outside.

"The campaign was very strong and emotional, that's why there are so many people," a PiS voter called Agnes told the BBC.

[Jaga]

I am very happy with the elections in Poland. Their was a huge turnover with young people and Poles abroad. They were against Law and Order that was in power for 8 years and made us into anti-EU country, banned abortion and also made our supreme court system unjust. Polish currency went up expecting that the funds from EU would be finally given to Poland.

Although Law and Order won the most votes it got only 35%, other opposition parties would work together to make a government

Here is more detailed analysis:

www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-poland-election-donald-tusk-jaroslaw-kaczynski/
What happens next in Poland? 5 things you need to know after a landmark election
It’s not going to be fast or easy for a new government to roll back 8 years of actions by the Law and Justice party.

WARSAW — After eight years of rule by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, Polish voters on Sunday chose change — giving three opposition democratic parties enough seats to form a new government.
So now is the way is clear to bring Poland back into the European mainstream after dallying as an illiberal democracy?
Not so fast.
The country’s likely ruling coalition faces years of very hard political graft to undo the changes wrought by PiS since 2015.
Here are five main takeaways from an election that will shake Poland and Europe.

1. Job No. 1 — creating a new government
The result puts PiS in first place, with 36.1 percent, according to a preliminary vote count, and 196 seats, but that’s too few for a majority in the 460-member lower house of parliament.
“We will definitely try to build a parliamentary majority,” said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
The first move belongs to President Andrzej Duda, a former PiS member who has always been loyal to the party. He has said that presidents traditionally choose the leader of the largest party to try to form a government, but if PiS really is a no-hoper, Duda could delay the formation of a stable government.
Under the Polish constitution, the president has to call a new parliamentary session within 30 days of the election. He then has 14 days to nominate a candidate for prime minister; once named, the nominee has 14 days to win a vote of confidence in parliament.
If that fails, parliament then chooses a nominee for PM.
That means if Duda sticks with PiS, it could be mid-December before the three opposition parties — Civic Coalition, the Third Way and the Left — get a chance to form a government. Together, they have 249 seats in the new legislature.
There are already voices calling on the opposition to short-circuit that by striking a coalition deal with the signatures of at least 231 MPs, demonstrating to Duda that they have a lock on forming a government.
Once in power, the opposition will find that ruling isn’t easy.
What unites the three is their distaste for PiS, but their programs differ markedly.
Civic Coalition, the largest party under the leadership of Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, is part of the center-right European People’s Party in the European Parliament. But it also contains smaller parties from different groupings like the Greens.
The Third Way is a coalition of two parties — Poland 2050, founded by TV host Szymon Hołownia, and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), the country’s oldest political force representing the peasantry. Poland 2050 is part of Renew while PSL is in the EPP. The grouping skews center right, which means it’s likely to clash with the Left on issues like loosening draconian abortion laws.
The Left is in turn an amalgamation of three small groupings whose leaders have often been at daggers drawn.

2. There’s a mighty purge coming
A non-PiS government will have a very difficult time passing legislation as it will not have the three-fifths of parliamentary votes needed to override Duda’s veto; his term ends in 2025.
The new administration’s first job will be cleaning PiS appointees out of controling positions in government, the media and state-controlled corporations. Poland has a long tradition of governments rewarding loyalists with cushy jobs, but PiS took it to an extreme not seen since communist times.
Most of those people face dismissal.
“We will fire all members of supervisory boards and boards of directors. We will conduct new recruitment in transparent competitions, in which competence, not family and party connections, will be decisive,” says the Civic Coalition electoral program.
“We’ll end the rule of the fat cats in state companies,” says the Left’s program.
The immediate market reaction was positive, with energy company Orlen up more than 8 percent on the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Monday, and the biggest bank, PKO BP, up over 11 percent.
Poland’s state media became PiS’s propaganda arm — along with a chain of newspapers bought by state-controlled refiner Orlen — hammering Tusk as the traitorous “Herr Tusk” more loyal to Germany than Poland. Not a lot of people in the media are likely to survive what’s coming, if the new government succeeds in its goal of shutting down the National Media Council — a body stuffed with PiS loyalists that manages public media.
Poland’s state media became PiS’s propaganda arm, hammering Tusk as the traitorous “Herr Tusk” more loyal to Germany than Poland | Zbignieuw Meissner/EFE via EPA
But losing a job isn’t the worst of what’s awaiting many.

3. Go directly to jail
When Tusk’s party last won power from a short-lived PiS government in 2007, the winners treated their political rivals with kid gloves and hardly anyone was prosecuted. This time the gloves are off.
In its political program, Civic Coalition promises to prosecute anyone for “breaking the constitution and rule of law.”
It aims at Duda, Morawiecki, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, Central Bank Governor Adam Glapiński for mismanaging the fight against inflation, and Orlen CEO Daniel Obajtek for heading a controversial buyout that saw the sale of part of a large refinery to foreign interests.
Expect prosecutors to track down the numerous scandals that have hit PiS over the years — from the government of former Prime Minister Beata Szydło refusing to publish verdicts issued by the Constitutional Tribunal, to Duda refusing to swear in properly elected judges to the tribunal.
There are also dodgy contracts issued during the panicky early phase of the COVID pandemic, millions spent on a 2020 election by mail that had not been approved by parliament, state companies setting up funds that poured money into PiS-backed projects, a bribes for visas scandal, and many more.
Many people with corporate jobs kicked back part of their salaries to PiS. Additionally, state-controlled companies directed a torrent of advertising money to often niche pro-government newspapers while neglecting larger independent media.
All of those transactions are likely to be examined and — if found to be against the interests of the corporation and its shareholders — could result in criminal charges.
The coalition promises to “hold responsible” people “guilty of civil service crimes.”

4. Reaching out to Brussels
Tusk is a Brussels animal — he spent five years there as European Council president and was also chief of the European People’s party.
PiS’s departure marks a sea change with the EU — which spent eight years tangling with Warsaw over radical changes to the judicial system aimed at bringing judges under tighter political control.
The European Commission moved to end Poland’s voting rights as an EU member under a so-called Article 7 procedure, blocked the payout of €36 billion in loans and grants from the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund, sued Poland at the Court of Justice of the EU, while the European Parliament passed resolutions decrying Warsaw’s backsliding on democratic principles.