Does Russia want to absorb Belarus?

[Jaga]

Russia increased its price of oil in Belarus three times and is going to cease any economic privileges for Belarus - since Lukaszenko does not want to strenghten the union with Russia (the same currency etc).

Although the majority of Belarussians speak Russian and are pro-Russian only few would like Belarus become a part of Russia.

[Jaga]

here is more:
It has been a day of mixed fortunes for Belarus's opposition and the national economy. The main opposition leader, Alexander Milinkevich, was released from prison on the same day Russian media reported Moscow intends to possibly triple the price of gas sales to Belarus.

If a massive energy price is imposed it would signal an end of Moscow's support for Lukashenko and heap unprecedented pressure on him.

Analysts say it would halt economic growth in the country and paralyse its welfare system.
euronews.net/create_html.php?page=detail_info&article=358695&lng=1

[pieter]

admin said:

here is more:
It has been a day of mixed fortunes for Belarus's opposition and the national economy. The main opposition leader, Alexander Milinkevich, was released from prison on the same day Russian media reported Moscow intends to possibly triple the price of gas sales to Belarus.

If a massive energy price is imposed it would signal an end of Moscow's support for Lukashenko and heap unprecedented pressure on him.

Analysts say it would halt economic growth in the country and paralyse its welfare system.
euronews.net/create_html.php?page=detail_info&article=358695&lng=1

Jaga,

I am gald to hear that Alexander Milinkevich was released from prison and find it a
healthy development that Russia wants Belarus to pay the normal marketprise for oil
and gas. Why should Bealrus be priviliged above other countries?

Pieter

[Eric]

Lukashenko originally created the idea of a unified Russia and Belarus in the 1990s, when he felt that he could become president of Russia. It is, of course, totally impossible that his dream would ever come true, and this is why he has ever since been very slow in creating the union, even backing away from it at times.

There is a joint government account for funds for the union, and Belarus has been charging money to it for a joint TV network among other things. But there is no TV network, no other things... and yet the account continues to get smaller and smaller...

[Jaga]

Eric,

you have to admit, it is difficult to be a partner to a big guy - like Russia or the US. So, no wonder that Belarussians have second thoughts. But originally it was going to be the union or equal right, so no wonder if Lukashenko had big ambitions

[Eric]

Jaga, I have said so many times before, that the majority of Belarussians are NOT opposed to a Russia-Belarus union, and no one has ever expected a 50/50 partnership. Because of its highly-developed industrial base after WWII, Belarus was given a special place in the Soviet economy, but when it's just Russia and Belarus, then you know who will be the dominant partner.

The only reason nothing is happening now is because of Lukashenko. He goes on TV and says that he will not allow any other nation (including Russia) to take away Belarus' soverignty. Then, the next day, he goes on TV and begs Russia to keep gas prices low.

Russia is finally tired of waiting, and so the Kremlin has told Lukashenko - either unite the countries and the economies, or you will be treated as any other foreign nation, and be expected to pay world rates for all supplies.

[pieter]

ericdn said:

Jaga, I have said so many times before, that the majority of Belarussians are NOT opposed to a Russia-Belarus union, and no one has ever expected a 50/50 partnership. Because of its highly-developed industrial base after WWII, Belarus was given a special place in the Soviet economy, but when it's just Russia and Belarus, then you know who will be the dominant partner.

The only reason nothing is happening now is because of Lukashenko. He goes on TV and says that he will not allow any other nation (including Russia) to take away Belarus' soverignty. Then, the next day, he goes on TV and begs Russia to keep gas prices low.

Russia is finally tired of waiting, and so the Kremlin has told Lukashenko - either unite the countries and the economies, or you will be treated as any other foreign nation, and be expected to pay world rates for all supplies.

And again this is very normal in bilateral relations!
Belarus should pay world rates for the gas and oil it gets.
Lukashenko is a fool if he thinks that he can survive alone.
Russia is an European country too, with strong economical
ties with Germany, Great-Britain, France, the Netherlands
and Italy. Russian multi-nationals are in European joint-ventures,
and active on the European energy market and other parts
of the economy. Belarus will be isolated from two sides,
the EU and Russia. It will be the North-Korea of Eastern-Europe.
Either Belarus integrates with the Oekraine and the Baltic states
and Poland into the EU, or it will form a Bi-partisan state with
the Russian Federation, with a large autonomy.
It can not survive alone in this world.

I have no clue how the bilateral relations are between Belarus
and the Ukraine and the Baltic states, but for Belarussian
interest it should have good political, economical and
cultural ties with all it's neighbours, on the long term.
So also the restauration of ties with Poland too.
Alexander Milinkevich was smart enough to emphatise that
he found good relations with Russia very important.

[Eric]

It is amazing... every winter, Lukashenko goes on TV to admonish Russia for charging such "high" rates for supplies, even though Belarus receives gas from Russia at a lower price than any other country. He truly won't be happy until Russia gives everything to Belarus for free.

[Eric]

Relations between Belarus and Ukraine are, unfortunately, very bad. Ukraine officially supports the anti-Lukashenko opposition (Ukraine is a member of an "international organization" designed to get rid of Lukashenko and install the opposition in government; the other members are Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Georgia), and so there are very few bilateral contacts between the countries these days. You can see how Belarus is isolated on practically every side - Russia is Belarus' only means of support, and yet Lukashenko is still rocking the boat. Go figure.

[pieter]

ericdn said:

Relations between Belarus and Ukraine are, unfortunately, very bad. Ukraine officially supports the anti-Lukashenko opposition (Ukraine is a member of an "international organization" designed to get rid of Lukashenko and install the opposition in government; the other members are Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Georgia), and so there are very few bilateral contacts between the countries these days. You can see how Belarus is isolated on practically every side - Russia is Belarus' only means of support, and yet Lukashenko is still rocking the boat. Go figure.

Thanks for this update Eric, I only knew about Polands, Russia's, America's and
Europe's attitude towards Belarus, and that Lukashenko was hostile towards
foreign diplomats and embassies. And that Belarus is a pariah in the West, and
seen as an allie by the Russians (although it is a difficult allie, what I make up
from Eric words). Lukashenko is a typical megalomaniac, a desease many rulers
in the past and present have.

[Eric]

Yes, Belarus is a difficult ally for Russia. Belarus is a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West still, and the majority of Belarussians want close relations with Russia. Lukashenko has managed to keep the economy from disaster, and despite low salaries, Belarussians have a higher standard of living than in most of the former USSR.

However, Lukashenko is extremely erratic, and he even insults Russia at times. Basically, he acts as if Belarus should be the most powerful state in all of Europe, and even Russia should follow Minsk's commands.

[pieter]

ericdn said:

Yes, Belarus is a difficult ally for Russia. Belarus is a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West still, and the majority of Belarussians want close relations with Russia. Lukashenko has managed to keep the economy from disaster, and despite low salaries, Belarussians have a higher standard of living than in most of the former USSR.

However, Lukashenko is extremely erratic, and he even insults Russia at times. Basically, he acts as if Belarus should be the most powerful state in all of Europe, and even Russia should follow Minsk's commands.

Belarus a bufferzone between the Russia and the West still?
You forgot that Russia also borders with Ukraine, the Baltic states (Estonia and Latvia),
Finland and the USA (Bering sea) and Japan in the East, and that the West will never
be united on attacking Russia (knowing and learning from Napoleon and Hitlers
failure to occupy it).

[Eric]

It is, of course, very disconcerting for Russia to realize that it now borders NATO and the EU (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), and that Ukraine (at least under Yushchenko) is trying to join both. Georgia also wants to join both.

Basically, the only stable country that borders Russia is Finland, and even that's not perfect. A few years ago, a minister in the Finnish government rejected calls for Finland to destroy its anti-infantry land mines until Russia destroyed its infantry.

[pieter]

ericdn said:

It is, of course, very disconcerting for Russia to realize that it now borders NATO and the EU (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), and that Ukraine (at least under Yushchenko) is trying to join both. Georgia also wants to join both.

Basically, the only stable country that borders Russia is Finland, and even that's not perfect. A few years ago, a minister in the Finnish government rejected calls for Finland to destroy its anti-infantry land mines until Russia destroyed its infantry.

I don't understand Russia's disconcert with bordering with NATO/EU countries,
because with a prosporous expanding EU, the Russian export market and low
wages would benefit from it on the long term.
And the European Union will be wise to never attack Russia, because it's large
population, strong army, harsh climate and hostile environment to foreign
invaders. The Germans remember the fierce resistance of the Partisans.

I totally understand Finlands objections to against dismantling its landmines,
because it remembers the Winterwar, and never will trust the Russians
totally, and with their historical experiance in mind, rightly so.

The Winterwar (November 30th 1939 - March 13th 1940)

The Winter War (also known as the Soviet-Finnish War or the Russo-Finnish War) broke out when the Soviet Union attacked Finland on November 30, 1939, three months after the start of World War II. Because the attack was judged completely illegal, the Soviet Union was expelled from the League of Nations on December 14th. Soviet leader Josef Stalin had expected to conquer the whole country by the end of year, but Finnish resistance frustrated the Soviet forces, who outnumbered the Finns four to one. Finland held out until March 1940, when a peace treaty was signed ceding about 10% of Finland's territory, and 20% of its industrial capacity, to the Soviet Union.
The results of the war were mixed. Although the Soviet forces finally managed to break through the Finnish defence, neither the Soviet Union nor Finland emerged from the conflict unscathed. Soviet losses on the front were tremendous, and the country's international standing suffered. Even worse, the fighting ability of the Red Army was put into question, a fact that some argue contributed to Hitler's decision to launch Operation Barbarossa. Finally, the Soviet forces did not accomplish their primary objective of conquest of Finland, but gained only a secession of territory along Lake Ladoga. The Finns retained their sovereignty and gained considerable international goodwill.
The March 15 peace treaty thwarted Franco-British preparations to send support to Finland through northern Scandinavia (the Allied campaign in Norway) which would also have hindered German access to northern Sweden's iron ore. Germany's invasion of Denmark and Norway on 9 April 1940 (Operation Weserübung) then diverted the attention of the world to the struggle for possession of Norway. The Winter War (talvisota in Finnish, vinterkriget in Swedish) is considered by some a military disaster for the Soviet Union, and was interpreted by some as indicative of inherent weakness in the Soviet system. However, Stalin did learn from this fiasco and realized that political control over the Red Army was no longer feasible. After the Winter War, the Kremlin initiated the process of reinstating qualified officers and modernizing its forces, a fateful decision that would enable the Soviets to resist the German invasion. It may be noted that even the German Wehrmacht, as it would become apparent in 1941, was not prepared for offensive winter warfare. It could be argued that neither would the armies of France, Britain, or USA have been, though this is largely untested. The Battle of the Bulge at the end of 1944, however, saw thousands of American troops stranded by weather arguably mild compared to Nordic winter.

virtual.finland.fi/netcomm/news/showarticle.asp?intNWSAID=25937

[Eric]

Russia does not want to consider itself the EU's "Latin America", the way America uses Latin America for its own benefits. Russia wants to stand on its own, alongside, not subordinate to, the European Union.

NATO is a totally different story... Russia will never forget that NATO was originally created as an enemy against the USSR, and Russia considers itself the successor to the USSR. Just today, the Russian Duma sternly told Ukraine - don't even think about joining NATO, or you will totally ruin all relations between Russia and Ukraine.