The Real Threat From North Korea

[bescheid]

whilst the focus of attention is on the missils of North Korea and the potenial nuclear threat presented by the possession of such weapons. The common concenses is that North Korea will need time to complete the process of engineering and refinement of these weapons.

The following presentation will complete an address of this question.



The Real Threat From North Korea


Anthony H. Cordesman
UPI Outside View Commentator
Washington (UPI) Jul 06, 2006


The same North Korean ICBM efforts that throw a rock at Alaska can throw a large nuclear warhead at every ally the United States has in Northeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are not only close allies, they are critical trading partners.
The risk of a war in this part of the world would inevitably threaten Chinese involvement in some form, and possible bloc trade with much of China for an extended period even if China did not become involved. Our troops and our bases in most of Asia would be at hazard as well.

Americans need to stop thinking parochially and selfishly and start thinking strategically. North Korea does not have to be able to hit the United States with meaningful nuclear threats to do much to deter or damage the United States.

Reintroducing large U.S. reinforcements into South Korea in the face of nuclear threats or attacks on a regional level is not something the United States can dismiss, or that Japan or South Korea can easily call for in the face of potential nuclear attack.

Threats of nuclear strikes on allied targets in the face of conventional use of US stealth and long-range strategic air and missile power present similar problems.

Preemptive North Korean strikes on key U.S. and allied bases would be semi-suicidal but would also be possible if the North Korean regime felt it was pushed to extremes.

North Korea also does not develop its MRBM/IRBM range missiles in a vacuum. It is a close partner with Iran and has sold missiles to Syria. There is no way as yet to know what the latest round of tests means for technology transfer to other states -- if anything -- but it could affect two major sources of trouble in the Middle East, and there are some indications of North Korean technology transfer to Pakistan.

Add in the fact, that North Korea has massive combat ready forces on the border with South Korea, long-range artillery that can hit at some 30-40 percent of South Korea's economy, massive stocks of chemical weapons, and large numbers of short range missiles and rockets that may have chemical warheads, and the regional threat rises substantially higher.

The continental United States may well have at least half a decade to wait and see. Our Asian allies don't, our Middle East allies don't, and our military forces and economic interests don't. The systems we call "Scuds" and "No Dongs" may well be extremely dangerous now, and they almost certainly will be in a year or so. No one had to shoot Achilles in the head.

One other point. When it comes to political posturing, the Bush administration deserves a bit of credit on its own. Talking about activating an unproven ballistic missile defense, whose booster seems to have serious reliability problems, to deal with a test it probably was almost certain would never hit the United States was posturing on its own.

While not quite at the Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction level, the Bush administration also needs to provide far more evidence there was a real threat and that it was not simply seeking publicity, and to distract attention from Iraq.

The Bush administration also probably has a good longer-term case for missile defenses, and certainly has one at the theater level. But the fact is that if we fired today's test bed systems, they might well malfunction just as badly as the North Korean test did. The future may well be very different, but the incapable shooting at the incapable is not a particularly good way to celebrate the Fourth of July.

{Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke chair of strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. This article is extracted from his new CSIS paper "North Korea's Missile Tests: Saber Rattling or Rocket's Red Glare?"}


Charles

[Pawian]

Bescheid,
Every communist regime is prepared to repel any attacks on its territory. It is caused by the obsessive conviction that all capitalist countries, sometimes even communist too, do nothing but plan an invasion in order to remove the regime.

I don`t think the North Korean dictator is going to start the war. He knows that would be the end of his regime because the USA, South Korea and even Japan would answer with everything they have.
But if attacked, the dictator probably won`t hesitate to defend its rule at any cost.

[bescheid]

[I don`t think the North Korean dictator is going to start the war. He knows that would be the end of his regime because the USA, South Korea and even Japan would answer with everything they have.
But if attacked, the dictator probably won`t hesitate to defend its rule at any cost]



Interesting Pawian, very interesting. It would as seemingly so, a dooms day button. Perhaps maybe, perhaps not.

For have you ever played poker? The power of bluff and one up man ship? You push your opponent to the breaking point and give him an out, an out as long as it is in your favour. And then make your opponent feel it was a superior move on his part.

Charles

[hollister]

pawian said:

I don`t think the North Korean dictator is going to start the war.

The irony here is that no one has to "start" a war. There was never a peace treaty for the Korean War only a military armistice that was never signed by the respective governments. Thus - there is no need for a declaration of war by Congress - Bush (and his minions) can do whatever they want with no Congressional oversight (but it is not like that has stopped them before).

[piwo]

Bush (and his minions) can do whatever they want with no Congressional oversight (but it is not like that has stopped them before).

Nor did it stop his predecessor, who committed troops without consent of cogress or declaration of war as well.

[Bob S]

;D Whew! Piwo I remember that. I had a heck of a time fending off those Serbian soldiers when they charged across my front lawn. Don't worry about Congress in this case; his wife and Monica Lewensky approved. ;D

[kaima]

Hollister,

If memory serves me right, Korea was also not a war. It was never declared a war by congress rothe prez, it was perhaps officially a "police action".

[kaima]

piwo said:

Bush (and his minions) can do whatever they want with no Congressional oversight (but it is not like that has stopped them before).

Nor did it stop his predecessor, who committed troops without consent of cogress or declaration of war as well.

You are right Piwo, But we ahve to give Bush credit for picking a doozy of a pointless war and working it for all it is worth.

[hollister]

wb4rff said:

;D Whew! Piwo I remember that. I had a heck of a time fending off those Serbian soldiers when they charged across my front lawn. ;D

Don't you hate it when that happens!

And yes Kai, I think you are correct in that Korea was a "police action" as was VietNam ...

[Bob S]

Yup! They tore up the sod and I couldn't mow my lawn for about a month. LOL ;D