Russia-Georgia spat worsens

[Jaga]

In Poland they also worry about Georgian - Russian relations. Nobody wants a new war in thsi region

www.ndtv.com/morenews/showmorestory.asp?slug=Russia-Georgia+spat+worsens&id=94036

Russia has announced that it was suspending planning for further troop withdrawals from its ex-Soviet neighbour Georgia.

This comes after one of the biggest bilateral crises between the two nations erupted post the arrest in Georgia on Wednesday of four Russian military officers accused of spying.

Ties between Tbilisi and Moscow were already strained over Georgia's bid to join NATO and allegations that Russia was backing its two separatist provinces, which Moscow denies.

The withdrawal of troops is a very sensitive point for Georgia, which in its eagerness to shake off Russia's influence secured a long-sought deal with Moscow last year that committed Russia to gradually pull out its equipment and troops and close two military bases in the Caucasus nation by 2008.

[bujno]

From the today's news (cutting off all transport and communication routes with Georgia) it seems that the peace-loving, unimperialistic, former great bear goes for yet another friendly mission.

[Eric]

Saakashvili desperately wants an open conflict with Russia. The guy is an idiot. Any conflict with Russia will result in ruin for Georgia, UNLESS the E.U. and U.S. and the whole rest of the world support Georgia 100% and make life totally miserable for Russia. But I don't think that will happen.

Bujno - What do you expect Russia to do in such a situation? Pretend that nothing is wrong? Give into all of Georgia's demands "just because"?

[constantine]

From the today's news (cutting off all transport and communication routes with Georgia) it seems that the peace-loving, unimperialistic, former great bear goes for yet another friendly mission.
--------------------------------------------------------
May be you can explain me, why Russia needs transport and communication routes with hostile regime in Georgia? And what mission do you mean, as I understand there are no any signs of military aggression.

[bescheid]

Well, this is the pass on information I received Sunday pertaining to this situation.


Intelligence Brief: Escalating Tension between Georgia and Russia
Drafted By:
www.pinr.com

Russian troops in Georgia were put on "high alert" on Sunday and ordered to "shoot to kill if provoked" while defending Moscow's two military bases in the Caucasian country. Tensions between Russia and Georgia are escalating after Tbilisi arrested four Russian officers on September 27 on spying charges.

As a consequence, Moscow withdrew its diplomats from Tbilisi and warned that it could postpone pulling out its troops by 2008 as initially planned. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the press on September 27 that the situation is "very serious," and, therefore, "when the U.N. Security Council will consider the Georgia-Abkhaz settlement in the next two weeks, we will insist on assessing Georgia's activities as subversive."

The crisis has its roots in the pro-Western, pro-U.S. turn of Georgian national elites epitomized by President Mikhail Saakashvili and his "Rose Revolution." The situation had already worsened in August when Georgian security forces attempted to secure control of the Abkhazian river valley of the Kodori Gorge in order to regain control of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Tbilisi then called for the replacement of Russia as the official mediator in Georgia's regional conflicts. Moscow maintains peacekeepers there along with two military bases.

This escalation signals that Georgia is likely to become the catalyst for U.S.-Russian geopolitical conflict for strategic and economic influence in the Caucasus. Washington criticized Moscow's reaction to the officers' arrests and continues to sponsor Tbilisi's gradual integration into N.A.T.O. Saakashvili has never concealed his pro-U.S. stance and frequently accuses Russia of being the destabilizing force behind breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Although Moscow officially says that Georgia is a sovereign state and is free to join N.A.T.O., Russia is working to maintain strong influence in the Trans-Caucasus region.

As PINR pointed out on September 19, the recent Russian-backed Transdniester pro-independence referendum may be a pattern for the two Georgian separatist regions' attempts to gain national independence. The United States and N.A.T.O., however, are likely to be more active in preserving Georgia's national integrity by strongly supporting Saakashvili than they have been in Transdniester. Therefore, a continued dispute between Tbilisi and Moscow with significant U.S. and European participation on the Georgian side is to be expected in the coming months. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Transdniester Votes for Independence"]

The stakes in the southern Caucasus region are significant. Georgia and Azerbaijan form a gateway linking the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea and are vital for the control of Central Asia's massive fossil resources, as the well-known Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline testifies.

Georgia's geographic position is also critical to N.A.T.O.'s ability to secure the Black Sea region and it allows Washington to project power toward the Middle East. Furthermore, at a time of uncertainty on Turkey's E.U. accession bid and on Ankara's geostrategic orientation -- due to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unwillingness to subscribe to U.S. military actions in Iraq -- Georgia's geostrategic importance for Washington is increasing.

Tbilisi's new pro-Western course is predicated upon a strategic relationship with the United States and N.A.T.O. and serves the purpose of a post-Soviet national elite that is eager to eliminate Russian hegemony. Disputes with Abkhazia and South Ossetia are worrying Tbilisi, but, on the other hand, they are enabling the Saakashvili administration to distract international attention from its increasingly authoritarian rule and provide him an effective ideological tool to boost nationalism and use it against remaining Russian influence.

As a consequence, tensions are likely to remain high in the coming months. While it is unlikely that Russia and N.A.T.O. will make moves that could openly put one against the other in the region, Moscow's support for separatist movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia will probably continue. Chances that a smooth diplomatic solution to Georgia's regional issues will be implemented soon are decreasing, while Tbilisi's approach to separatism remains militaristic.

Charles

[bujno]

That was a trustworthy piece of information from PINR kindly presented here by Bescheid. Since I am asked I would stronglu suggest taking into consideration that not all "Western" data and analysis sources are worthless. Here are some more popular reader oriented pieces of information.

www.ft.com/cms/s/687026fe-5205-11db-bce6-0000779e2340.html

www.guardian.co.uk/georgia/story/0,,1885820,00.html

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/29/AR2006092901451.html

www.lefigaro.fr/international/20061002.WWW000000432_la_georgie_fait_un_geste_pour_apaiser_la_crise_avec_la_russie.html


www.rzeczpospolita.pl/gazeta/wydanie_061002/swiat/swiat_a_4.html

zpravy.idnes.cz/mfdnes.asp?v=229&r=ze_svetaa&c=592661

They all seem to sound more all less the same, including the French source.

At least one Russian source is not that fond of the present situation Moscow got into. That is a promising sing.

www.ng.ru/politics/2006-10-02/3_kartblansh.html


Ìîñêâà ïîòåðïåëà ñåðüåçíîå ïîðàæåíèå íà ìèðîâîé àðåíå, ïîñòàâèâ ãðóçèíñêèé âîïðîñ ïåðåä Ñîâåòîì Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ è ÍÀÒÎ. Ïîïûòêà îñóäèòü ãðóçèíñêîå ðóêîâîäñòâî ïîñëå àðåñòà íåñêîëüêèõ ðîññèéñêèõ îôèöåðîâ íå íàøëà ïîääåðæêè íè â ÑÁ ÎÎÍ – êëþ÷åâîì îðãàíå, óïîëíîìî÷åííîì ïðèíèìàòü ðåøåíèÿ îá óãðîçå ìèðó è áåçîïàñíîñòè, íè â Ñåâåðîàòëàíòè÷åñêîì ñîþçå, îáúÿâèâøåì ëèøü íà äíÿõ î íîâîì ýòàïå ñáëèæåíèÿ ñ Òáèëèñè – íà÷àëå èíòåíñèâíîãî äèàëîãà.

Taking all that together, I wouldn't call President Mikhail Saakashvili an idiot, rather the opposite side. And I would expect Russia would stop bullying Georgia.

[constantine]

[That was a trustworthy piece of information from PINR kindly presented here by Bescheid. Since I am asked I would stronglu suggest taking into consideration that not all "Western" data and analysis sources are worthless. Here are some more popular reader oriented pieces of information.

www.ft.com/
www.guardian.co.uk
www.washingtonpost.com/
www.lefigaro.fr/
www.rzeczpospolita.pl

Why I am not astonished? I see a full list of most russophobic western newspapers! And what is result? Where is bloody war between Russian bear and small but proud Georgia?

[bujno]

constantine said:

[That was a trustworthy piece of information from PINR kindly presented here by Bescheid. Since I am asked I would stronglu suggest taking into consideration that not all "Western" data and analysis sources are worthless. Here are some more popular reader oriented pieces of information.

www.ft.com/
www.guardian.co.uk
www.washingtonpost.com/
www.lefigaro.fr/
www.rzeczpospolita.pl

Why I am not astonished? I see a full list of most russophobic western newspapers! And what is result? Where is bloody war between Russian bear and small but proud Georgia?

I really tried to choose the newspapers that are hard to be called especially critical towards Russia. And there was a link to www.ng.ru/
Nezavisymaya gazeta which is surely not overly critical..
I wouldn't call Rzeczpospolita the western' newspaper , it is a Polish newspaper, and as such it is Central European, just as the Czech MF Dnes.

[constantine]

[I really tried to choose the newspapers that are hard to be called especially critical towards Russia. And there was a link to www.ng.ru/
Nezavisymaya gazeta which is surely not overly critical..
I wouldn't call Rzeczpospolita the western' newspaper , it is a Polish newspaper, and as such it is Central European, just as the Czech MF Dnes.
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Yes, Nezavisimaya Gazeta is russian newspapere, but it belongs to one of the oligarchical clans. It is rather fishily when a paper specially call yourself "Nezavisimaya" (Independent), it's a first sign thet there isn't any signs of independence.



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