Post by tuftabis on May 18, 2010 10:51:49 GMT -7
Hungary is a lovely, civilized country, a traditional Polish friend. It lies in the heart of Central Europe, just some 80 km away from our southern border.
A game of chess in Central Europe
Posted on 5 Wed, May 2010, with tags: cee, hungary, poland
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Hungarian elections brought about a major change. After eight years of left-wing governments, the right wing party Fidesz gained a constitutional majority in the parliament. Its leader, Victor Orban, became Prime Minister.
What's in it for Europe?
A conservative party now rules in yet another EU country. There are now 15 conservative heads of state or government: all members of the European People's Party.
Mr Orban's overwhelming success means that Hungary has got a strong leadership. A new trend of generating "strong leaders" seems to be emerging in Central Europe. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite was the first in the region; now Hungary follows.
Poland is almost there with Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Providing Mr Tusk's party wins the country's presidential elections on June 20, as well as the subsequent parliamentary elections in 2011, it will be able to form a one-party government.
Changes afoot
There will also be major changes in the new Hungarian foreign policy. Fidesz promised to have more active policy in the European Union.
There are two countries that are tipped to be Hungary's strongest allies in the EU: Poland and Romania. Some in Budapest talk about a new political triangle - similar to the Weimar Triangle of Poland, France and Germany, or the Visegrad Group of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
Whatever the formula, one thing is sure. Poland has got a very close ally in Budapest. It is likely the first visit of the new Hungarian Foreign Minister, or maybe even the Prime Minister, will be to Warsaw. For Hungarians there are important projects to be worked on, such as North-South transport and energy corridors between the Baltic and the Adriatic seas.
Polish gains?
The change in the Hungarian political spectrum can have significant consequences for the Polish Central European policy; especially its coalition building within the EU. Poland's closest allies in the CEE region over recent years were Czech Republic and Lithuania. Relations with the Czechs became more and more complicated following internal Czech political chaos.
If in the May elections, the new Prague government were to be formed by left wing politicians, then the significance of the Polish-Czech relations could further deteriorate. In this situation Hungary emerges as a potential primary partner for Donald Tusk government in Central Europe. This cooperation can be further strengthened by the fact that two countries hold EU rotating presidencies in 2011 - Hungary in the first half, Poland in the second.
The Visegrad Group (V4) could face two developments. There could be two pairs - one with Mr Paroubek, if this Czech socialist is elected Prime Minister, and Slovakian PM Robert Fico. The second could be the Hungarian and Polish conservative-liberals. This inconsistency does not create problems as long as all four partners are dedicated to the V4 cooperation. Nevertheless some problems can originate from tensions between Slovakia and Hungary.
The second idea also originates from Budapest - Hungarians talk about "Visegrad Plus," which would virtually include all 10 CEE EU member countries. This would not undermine the V4 either - the group has proven an extremely useful instrument in the EU despite differences between states. Most likely it would not be formally enlarged, but parallel new instruments (such as Warsaw-Budapest-Bucharest trio) could be envisaged.
The arrival of Mr Orban in Budapest opens room for a geopolitical game of chess in Central Europe. Poland gains a new important ally, potentially the "new best friend" from countries in the region.
A game of chess in Central Europe
Posted on 5 Wed, May 2010, with tags: cee, hungary, poland
Bookmark and Share
Hungarian elections brought about a major change. After eight years of left-wing governments, the right wing party Fidesz gained a constitutional majority in the parliament. Its leader, Victor Orban, became Prime Minister.
What's in it for Europe?
A conservative party now rules in yet another EU country. There are now 15 conservative heads of state or government: all members of the European People's Party.
Mr Orban's overwhelming success means that Hungary has got a strong leadership. A new trend of generating "strong leaders" seems to be emerging in Central Europe. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite was the first in the region; now Hungary follows.
Poland is almost there with Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Providing Mr Tusk's party wins the country's presidential elections on June 20, as well as the subsequent parliamentary elections in 2011, it will be able to form a one-party government.
Changes afoot
There will also be major changes in the new Hungarian foreign policy. Fidesz promised to have more active policy in the European Union.
There are two countries that are tipped to be Hungary's strongest allies in the EU: Poland and Romania. Some in Budapest talk about a new political triangle - similar to the Weimar Triangle of Poland, France and Germany, or the Visegrad Group of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
Whatever the formula, one thing is sure. Poland has got a very close ally in Budapest. It is likely the first visit of the new Hungarian Foreign Minister, or maybe even the Prime Minister, will be to Warsaw. For Hungarians there are important projects to be worked on, such as North-South transport and energy corridors between the Baltic and the Adriatic seas.
Polish gains?
The change in the Hungarian political spectrum can have significant consequences for the Polish Central European policy; especially its coalition building within the EU. Poland's closest allies in the CEE region over recent years were Czech Republic and Lithuania. Relations with the Czechs became more and more complicated following internal Czech political chaos.
If in the May elections, the new Prague government were to be formed by left wing politicians, then the significance of the Polish-Czech relations could further deteriorate. In this situation Hungary emerges as a potential primary partner for Donald Tusk government in Central Europe. This cooperation can be further strengthened by the fact that two countries hold EU rotating presidencies in 2011 - Hungary in the first half, Poland in the second.
The Visegrad Group (V4) could face two developments. There could be two pairs - one with Mr Paroubek, if this Czech socialist is elected Prime Minister, and Slovakian PM Robert Fico. The second could be the Hungarian and Polish conservative-liberals. This inconsistency does not create problems as long as all four partners are dedicated to the V4 cooperation. Nevertheless some problems can originate from tensions between Slovakia and Hungary.
The second idea also originates from Budapest - Hungarians talk about "Visegrad Plus," which would virtually include all 10 CEE EU member countries. This would not undermine the V4 either - the group has proven an extremely useful instrument in the EU despite differences between states. Most likely it would not be formally enlarged, but parallel new instruments (such as Warsaw-Budapest-Bucharest trio) could be envisaged.
The arrival of Mr Orban in Budapest opens room for a geopolitical game of chess in Central Europe. Poland gains a new important ally, potentially the "new best friend" from countries in the region.
